Monday Business Edition

“Can China deflate its real estate bubble without generating a hard landing in its economy? It’s a serious problem. The Chinese themselves are quite worried about it,” said Nariman Behravesh, an analyst at IHS Global Insight.

“If you look at the ratio of home values relative to GDP, China is about the same level as Japan’s before Japan’s bubble burst,” he warned.

Of the country’s “big four” banks, ICBC is leading the way as Chinese lenders restart plans that were put on hold by the global crisis and seize new opportunities left in its wake.

Bank of China fulfilled that role in the 1980s, but times have changed as Chinese firms have been widely encouraged to invest abroad and Beijing seeks to boost the global profile of the yuan, the experts say.

“We are about to reach another important milestone in the WTO aircraft dispute,” said Boeing Vice President for trade policy Ted Austell.

The ruling — which marks the second major stage in a seven-year, tit-for-tat subsidies battle along with the separate US challenge to European support for rival Airbus — should remain out of the public eye for a few months under World Trade Organization rules.

The world economy may be steering itself cautiously out of the doldrums, but leaders have struggled to agree remedies to the key threats on the agenda at the annual World Economic Forum’s elite annual networking event.

“Let me highlight the one resource that is scarcest of all: time,” said UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, as dozens of senior international figures swung by to lobby some of the richest and most powerful people on the planet.

The budget, which hikes taxes and slashes spending as part of the price for the 67.5 billion euro ($91 billion) European Union-International Monetary Fund bailout, had already passed the lower house of parliament on Thursday.

“The finance bill now goes to the president for signing into law on Monday,” a government spokesman said.

“Everybody agreed we are in the endgame, that we should get a deal in July,” said EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht after he met counterparts including US Trade Representative Ron Kirk and China’s Commerce Minister Chen Deming.

“For that we redraft texts in March,” he said, following the talks on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, an annual networking event for the world’s business elite in this Swiss ski resort.

“This transaction brings together the rich traditions of some of the world’s most well known and respected entertainment, news and sports brands at NBCUniversal with the technology and consumer reach of Comcast, creating the ideal entertainment and distribution company,” said Comcast chairman and chief executive Brian Roberts.

The deal gives cable giant Comcast a controlling 51-percent stake in the media-entertainment powerhouse, while US conglomerate General Electric retains 49 percent.

Maruti, 54 percent owned by Japan’s Suzuki Motor Corp, said net profit slumped to 5.65 billion rupees ($123 million dollars) in the three months to December from 6.8 billion rupees a year earlier.

The result from the New Delhi-based company, battling mounting competition from India’s second-largest carmaker, South Korea’s Hyundai, and other rivals, fell shy of analysts’ forecasts of around six billion rupees.

The growth is a fillip for President Benigno Aquino’s new government as it seeks to attract more foreign investment and enable the long underperforming economy to catch up with its fast-developing Asian neighbours, analysts said.

The National Statistical Coordination Board said one main reason for the strong performance — coming off growth of just 0.9 percent in 2009 — was the rest of the world recovering from the global financial crisis.

In the past decade, Jose Ignacio — 180 kilometers (110 miles) east of Montevideo — has become a refuge for members of the jet set in the region who want to escape noisy Punta del Este, the old line resort 40 kilometers (25 miles) away.

Colombian singer Shakira, Argentine television producer Marcelo Tinelli, Argentine magnate Amalia Fortabat and French actress Dominique Sanda own properties in the area.

Japan’s industrial output jumped 3.1 percent in December from the previous month, marking a second straight monthly rise and beating forecasts of a 2.9 percent rise.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry upgraded its view of production, saying it was “showing signs of an upward movement” compared with the previous month’s report that said output remained weak.

It may seem a surprising figure given scorching growth running at nearly nine percent. But the culprits are delays in environmental clearances and land acquisition, red tape, and infrastructure bottlenecks, a report by India’s central bank said last week.

In 2010, foreign direct investment (FDI) in India slid 32 percent from a year earlier to $24 billion.

Obama, delivering his annual State of the Union address, pressed lawmakers to act “as soon as possible” on the trade agreement which would lift 95 percent of tariffs between the United States and the fourth-largest Asian economy.

His stance marked a rare point of agreement with the rival Republican Party which swept November elections and have pressed Obama to go further by moving ahead as well on pending trade deals with Colombia and Panama.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, whose country is pivotal to any solution as Europe’s strongest economy, did not rule out a radical reprofiling of Greek debt in a television interview broadcast on Sunday evening.

“Most market participants expect this problem to be tackled in a responsible way,” Schauble said when asked whether Athens would be forced to restructure its debt.

Monday’s move could limit BP’s scope to increase its own dividend and overshadow its 2010 results on Tuesday, when the company is expected to reinstate its payout, which it canceled at the height of its Gulf of Mexico oil spill last summer.

The vote against the TNK-BP dividend also comes a day before a London court is due to hear TNK-BP’s lawsuit seeking an injunction against the BP-Rosneft deal.

Robust sales growth in emerging markets has helped global automakers weather a fall in mature markets such as Europe, and Honda has especially benefited from its lucrative and dominant motorcycle business in developing countries such as India.

But a convincing recovery in the U.S. car market — Honda’s biggest — is the main factor that has stoked optimism among investors, sending its shares up nearly a fifth over the past three months.

After riding the upswing in bond markets to strong profit growth in the prior two quarters, Mizuho’s earnings slumped in the absence of those gains, and it stuck by its forecast for the full year to March.

“We are not likely to see large growth this year and the next,” said Chikako Horiuchi, analyst at Fitch Ratings in Tokyo.

But in a video recorded on Sunday, Ho said the suspension of legal proceedings was intended to give his family a chance to broker a settlement that would return all the assets that he considered stolen, in order to resolve the standoff.

“I give everyone a chance,” said Ho, chairman of Macau’s biggest casino operator, SJM Holdings, in the video.

The long-delayed clearance for India’s biggest foreign direct investment (FDI) follows a year in which Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh has blocked several projects, raising criticism he was jeopardizing India’s growth story.

India, one of the world’s fastest growing major economies, needs foreign capital to boost infrastructure and allow its economy to grow at near double digits. But projects have met with protests from largely poor farmers in this densely populated country.

The deal — the latest in a wave of consolidation sweeping the industry — creates the second largest U.S. coal miner by market value, holding 110 mines and combined coal reserves of 5 billion tons. The deal is expected to be completed in mid-2011.

Massey shareholders will receive 1.025 Alpha share for each Massey share in addition to $10 a share in cash, for a value of about $69.33 a share, the companies said. That represents a 21 percent premium over Massey’s closing share price of $57.23 on Friday.

Cautious trading could also come if earnings do not outperform and erode optimism about profits. The government’s January jobs report on Friday will highlight the week’s economic data.

Worries that Egypt’s unrest could spread to other countries in the Middle East, home to the world’s top oil exporters, caused investors on Friday to pull out of stocks and into bonds and other safer assets. U.S. crude futures settled more than 4 percent higher on Friday.

The latter has already hit oil prices and has started to rattle equities. U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 4 percent higher Friday, on concerns the civil unrest in Egypt could spread and threaten stability in the Middle East.

Overall, however, the first month of the year has been a good one for investors willing to take on some risk.

But, in a reminder of the problems banks still face after absorbing billions of dollars of taxpayers’ money in bailouts, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said financiers needed to show real thanks by changing their behavior.

After kicking off the debate at the Forum’s annual meeting with an attack on regulation, bankers took a different tack on Saturday at a meeting with finance ministers, emphasizing their wish to help create jobs and boost growth.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told a World Economic Forum panel he did not expect the 17-nation euro zone to suffer any further major crises. Member states were drawing lessons and moving toward convergence in their economic and social policies.

“I don’t expect that there will be further major shocks,” Schaeuble said. “I think the euro will be stable.”

Blankfein is receiving base pay of $2 million effective Jan 1, up from $600,000, he company said in a filing.

The shares awarded to Blankfein amount to a 42 percent increase from the all-stock bonus he received for 2009, and are the latest sign that U.S. banks are moving away from some of the austerities imposed by the financial crisis.

By earning an estimated $5 billion in 2010 thanks mainly to bets the economy would recover, Paulson likely set a record for the $1.9 trillion hedge fund industry’s biggest-ever year’s earnings. He beat his own record, which he set in 2007 with a $4 billion haul made off the subprime bet.

The Wall Street Journal first reported Paulson’s payout in its Friday edition, and investors familiar with Paulson’s portfolios said the number is likely correct given the manager’s asset size and his recent profitable bets on Citigroup (C.N) and gold.

The bonus payments are the first since the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, pay restrictions were lifted last year. But they still reflect a new climate around compensation, as payouts have not returned to the more cash-heavy mixes paid before the financial crisis.

The compensation pool for global banking and markets — BofA’s investment bank division — is down after the unit reported a worse year in 2010 than 2009.

Like smaller rivals ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp, earnings at the second-largest U.S. oil company were lifted by the strength of oil prices.

But Chevron said on Friday that it added only 240 million oil-equivalent barrels (boe) to reserves last year, or 24 percent of the oil and gas it produced.

Sara Lee announced the plan on Friday, after takeover bids were not enough to entice it to sell the whole company. The decision does not stop Sara Lee from accepting a new bid.

Sara Lee said the split should be done early in 2012 and would include a $3-per-share special dividend, to be funded with proceeds from the planned sale of its North American fresh bread business. The dividend totals $1.92 billion based on the number of shares outstanding in October.

Chrysler, which is controlled by Italy’s Fiat Group SpA, predicted it would make $200 million to $500 million this year, setting the stage for an initial public stock offering that could take place in the fourth quarter.

The U.S. government gave Chrysler $12.5 billion to get through bankruptcy in 2009. In exchange, the government got a 10 percent stake in the company. Chrysler still must repay $5.8 billion on the loans, and the government hopes to get the rest of its money back in the stock sale.

And it might seem as if the United States doesn’t make world-class goods as well as some other nations.

“There’s no reason Europe or China should have the fastest trains, or the new factories that manufacture clean energy products,” President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union policy address last week.

The downward revision in the country’s outlook was at least the second by an international ratings agency since the mass demonstrations demanding President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster began a week ago. The move highlighted growing concerns about Egypt’s stability, and by extension, the economy.

The cut was driven by the growing unrest, noting that “Egypt suffers from deep-seated political and socio-economic challenges,” said Tristan Cooper, Moody’s head analyst for Middle East Sovereigns.

Many U.S. travelers have canceled trips to Egypt. Some tour operators are avoiding the country, and Delta Air Lines and EgyptAir suspended flights from the U.S. to Cairo. Stock markets in the Middle East fell sharply during the weekend.

Travelers faced the same question as Rob Solow, who is booked on an Egyptian getaway in February with his wife. “Is it going to be an issue where we are going to have to watch our backs the whole time?”

Now, Indians who’ve known nothing but fishing all their lives find their futures tied to the man handing out checks for damages, paid from a multibillion-dollar fund started after the April 20 Gulf spill.

Kenneth Feinberg, the fast-talking East Coast lawyer in charge of BP PLC’s $20 billion compensation fund, met with them for the first time Friday night on the back bayous of south Louisiana at a gymnasium in Montegut, about an hour and a half from New Orleans. Dozens of fishermen showed up in shrimp boots and work clothes, speaking a mixture of French and English.

Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak did much the same Saturday as riots gripped Cairo and other cities: offering more economic opportunities in a country where half the people live on less than $2 a day.

The pledges-under-siege have something else in common: an acknowledgment that the unprecedented anger on Arab streets is at its core a long-brewing rage against decades of economic imbalances that have rewarded the political elite and left many others on the margins.

The fears of foreign tourists mirrored those of many Egyptians. Dozens with the means to do so rented jets or hopped aboard their own planes in a mad dash that did little to boost confidence in the future of a country long viewed as a pillar of stability in a restive region. Those leaving included businessmen and celebrities.

The United States, Canada, Switzerland, Turkey and the Netherlands issued advisories encouraging nationals already in Egypt to leave and telling those who planned trips there to reconsider. The U.S. Embassy in Cairo said it was making arrangements to transport Americans who want to leave to “safehaven locations in Europe.” Flights would begin Monday.

Baxter Brewing in Maine has joined a growing number of small craft-beer breweries distributing their brews in cans – just like mainstream mass-produced beers – rather than in bottles. A decade ago, it’s believed there weren’t any U.S. craft breweries canning their suds. Nowadays, nearly 100 sell at least one beer variety in metal.

Baxter Brewing founder and president Luke Livingston said cans are good for the beer, the environment and consumers, because they’re easy to take to places like camping trips and golf outings. Still, cans in some quarters have to overcome the stereotype of chugging contests or a beer-bellied John Belushi crushing cans on his forehead in the 1978 movie “Animal House.”

His prized collection of mystery novels, the bedroom set he was once proud to purchase new and anything else that can’t fit into the trunk of a car must be left behind.

More than two years after Meyers lost his job as a Las Vegas Strip bartender and nearly eight months after he exhausted his unemployment benefits, it has come to this: a careful inventory of a life’s possessions and the hopeless embrace of a future as a middle-aged homeless man.

Alpha is paying $7.1 billion in cash and stock for Massey, the nation’s fourth-largest coal producer by revenue. Massey operates 19 mining complexes in Virginia, West Virginia and Kentucky including the Upper Big Branch mine where the April 5 disaster occurred.

Alpha is offering 1.025 share of its stock for each share of Massey, plus $10 per share in cash. Together, that represents a bid of $69.33 per share, a 21 percent premium over Massey’s closing share price Friday.

The deal closed shortly before midnight EST on Friday.

The takeover gave the cable-hookup company 51 percent control of NBC Universal, which owns the nation’s fourth-ranked broadcaster, NBC; the Universal Pictures movie studio and related theme parks; and a bevy of cable channels including Bravo, E! and USA.

These days, it’s the digital revolution that remains but a rumor in much of rural America.

Dial-up user Val Houde knows this as well as anybody. After moving here four years ago, the 51-year-old mother of four took a correspondence course for medical transcription, hoping to work from home. She plunked down $800, took the course, then found out the software wasn’t compatible with dial-up Internet, the only kind available to her.

Behind the joke was an ambitious promise to tame and reorganize segments of the federal bureaucracy. If Obama’s new chief of staff, Bill Daley, wields any influence, a primary target will be the Commerce Department.

Its 38,000 employees oversee a diverse portfolio, from helping businesses and conducting the census to providing accurate weather forecasts and granting patents and trademark protection.

Thus begins a night of gambling, drinking and mingling at the newly opened Casino Damascus – the first to open in Syria in nearly four decades.

The glittering casino showcases Syria’s gradual shedding of its socialist past in favor of the free market. At a time when economic discontent is shaking Tunisia and Egypt, President Bashar Assad is gambling that gradual change can insulate his country from such tumult.

As Egypt’s unrest neared its sixth day, the cancelations of flights and the arrival of several largely empty aircraft appeared to herald an ominous erosion of key tourism revenue for the country, hitting hard at its pocketbook even as protesters centered many of their grievances on the grinding poverty they endure daily.

Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan organized an additional 10 flights to evacuate their citizens, officials at Cairo International Airport said. Among those who left were families of diplomats.

The Richmond, Va.-based coal company doesn’t believe that worn shearer bits, broken water sprayers or an excessive buildup of coal dust contributed to the blast, Vice President and General Counsel Shane Harvey said.

Instead, Massey continues to argue there was a sudden inundation of natural gases from a crack in the floor that overwhelmed what it insists were good air flow and other controls that should have contained the blast.

The fast-food chain took out full-page ads in at least nine major newspapers and launched a YouTube campaign featuring its president Friday to proclaim its taco filling is 88 percent beef.

A false-advertising lawsuit filed last week that caused an online stir alleges the company’s filling doesn’t have enough beef to be called that. The lawsuit seeks to make the company stop calling it “beef,” and pay the suing law firm’s bill.

Recession-weary consumers are starting to spend again, and spurts of heavy snow around the country haven’t hurt either.

“When it snows, all of sudden everybody wants new gear,” said Joel Handschin, owner of the snowboard shop Jackson Treehouse in Teton Village, Wyo.