Anti-Capitalist Meetup: Greek Elections and the dangers of Pyrrhic Victories by NY Brit Expat

(2 pm. – promoted by ek hornbeck)

I was thinking of writing about the Charlie Hebdo massacre which culminated in an anti-Semitic attack in a Kosher Supermarket leading to the deaths of Jewish shoppers.  I was considering addressing the issue of why we should have solidarity with the victims even though I found their articles racist and the errors of secular extremism adopted by the French left, done so well here; really, does anyone really think that deserves execution? I was going to talk about my deep fears and worries for French Muslims and the inevitable security measures that will be introduced that will affect the freedoms of French citizens and how those would be used against ethnic and religious minorities and possibly against French political dissidents. I also was considering discussing my anger at Hollande’s keeping Netanyahu updated on the situation in the supermarket.

This is the same Netanyahu whom is urging French Jews to emigrate to Israel and who was part of those leading a “national unity” march today in Paris and that Netanyahu represents no one but those that voted for him, much less the Jews living outside of Israel that he is encouraging to move to Israel which is engaged in a constant state of war. What is this saying to French Jews, and for that matter, all Jews living outside of Israel?

Are they actually implying that Netanyahu in some way represents all Jews?!  Sorry, this man does not and will never speak for me … putting my anger at this aside for the moment, we actually have something positive to discuss!

I decided to go for a story that actually could shift Europe in a positive direction and that is the upcoming Greek elections on January 25th.  Following the failure to elect a President in Greece, Samaras was forced into snap elections (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/29/greece-crisis-president-snap-election).

According to all polls (and these, alas, are notoriously unreliable in Greece as they are often commissioned by the political parties themselves) it looks as though SYRIZA will come in first.

This means that they will be granted 50 seats to help them make a government.  However, the issue does not appear to be whether they will win, but whether they will win with 151 seats to ensure a majority in Parliament. If they do not win that majority, things are up in the air as an understatement.  

SYRIZA is in pink, compared to New Democracy in Blue (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015  for further breakdowns)

So what is happening in the mainstream and far right?

Greece’s system is one of proportional representation and a 5% cut-off rule was put in to eliminate smaller party’s representation – those falling below 5% get no seats. This is having interesting consequences. First, PASOK (the Greek social democratic party) may not make the 5% cut-off.  Giorgos Papandreou (the former leader of PASOK and the son of the party’s founder replaced by Evangelos Venizelos, the current leader of PASOK ) has set up a new centre-left pro-austerity party The Democratic Socialist Movement in an attempt to save his political career tarnished by failure to reject the memorandum forcing Greece into privatisation at bargain-basement prices, the destruction of pensions, incomes and the Greek social welfare state and, let’s just say it, the Greek economy.  Second, another centre-left party DIMAR has lost all credibility after joining the previous government and will not make the 5% cut-off.   Third, The neo-nazi Golden Dawn party is having difficulty finding people to run for it as most of its members of Parliament and its leader are in jail for doing what Fascists do, that is, violent attacks; if they find candidates willing and able to run, they are expected to make the 5% cut-off.

New Democracy (led by Antonis Samaras) is in the fight of its life  and has gone for the usual fear-mongering that characterised the last election (2012) campaign; that is a SYRIZA win will get Greece thrown out of the Eurozone (the majority of Greeks do not support leaving the Eurozone) and cause economic chaos, including bank runs and capital flight.  

What is happening on the left and far left?

There are two coalitions and 1 political party that are running on an anti-austerity line in the Greek elections. SYRIZA (the coalition of the radical left) which is a broad left coalition, ANTARSYA (the Front of Greek anti-capitalist left, a hard-left coalition;) and the Greek Communist party (the KKE). While SYRIZA has appealed to both to join their electoral slate, this has been rejected by the KKE and it seems by ANTARSYA (http://www.ANTARSYA.gr/) who listed their candidates for the election yesterday.

Instead of joining SYRIZA’s list (like the Greek Greens (see also:  http://greenparty.org.uk/news/… the KKE and Antarsya have decided to run against them.  Now, this is not based upon the possibility of either of them actually winning anything, but rather because SYRIZA is not left enough.

So instead of joining the list and pushing SYRIZA to the left from inside, this party and coalition are running against SYRIZA. Normally this shouldn’t be an issue, but given KKEs refusal to join a left-wing government and rejection of SYRIZA  may mean that the KKE who may hold the balance of seats will not agree to go into coalition with SYRIZA and that means that there is no one on the left for them to go into coalition with as ANTARSYA will not make the 5% cut-off. ANTARSYA’s strength is more on the streets than as an electoral grouping.  This leads to the obvious question;  rather than running against SYRIZA, wouldn’t it make more sense politically to keep pressing them towards the left?



We can hope that those saying that they will vote KKE and ANTARSYA will actually vote for SYRIZA when they go to vote and that SYRIZA will be able to form a majority government and not have to search for coalition partners to the right which will both undermine SYRIZA’s programme and undermine their legitimacy among the Greeks as well.  Moreover, this will be a set-back for the whole of the anti-austerity left in Europe fighting neoliberalism. Pressurising from inside the government and on the streets would be more effective policy to ensure that SYRIZA stays on the left and this will not be accomplished easily if they are forced to seek support from groups to their right to get a majority. Quite honestly, left-wing sectarianism may actually undermine the first left-wing anti-austerity government in Europe which would be catastrophic for the European anti-austerity movement.

SYRIZA’s programme

With all the accusations of betrayal coming from the KKE and some members of the hard left, a glance at SYRIZA’s programme is useful.

On the link attached to the above is a national reconstruction plan that outlines the costs and benefits of their programme.  The 4 pillars of their programme essentially address the humanitarian crisis that working class Greeks have been plunged into, plans for job creation in the public, social and private sectors, restitution of pensions and wages, removing attacks on trade unions and their bargaining power, and recovering the social welfare state destroyed by the Troika and agreements signed by successive Greek governments for servicing the debt.

There is a discussion of tax justice and funding the Greek state through economic growth rather than cuts and austerity and a call for personal debt relief for individuals to stop prosecutions, seizures of homes and accounts.

The programme also addresses the democracy deficit in the country and discusses empowering Greeks themselves and democratic institution to get popular participation on economic and political initiatives:

What does it not do? There is no call for wholesale nationalisations, no call for a worker’s government, there is no call for abrogation of the debt (instead they are asking for renegotiation on 50% of the debt) or leaving the euro, and there is no call for socialism.  It appears to be a simple and reformist plan for national reconstruction of Greek capitalist economy.  So why are the European ruling classes so worried?

What is the fear of the European ruling class from a SYRIZA victory?

Unlike the last election in 2012, finance capitalism (both the individual European and multinational banks are mostly covered from disaster of debt abrogation, repudiation, or relief (the Greek debt has been purchased by European governments and the ECB; see also: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/f… So the issue of bank failures solidifying fears of a spike in the crisis is not the issue as much. Yet, international financial markets are reacting rather negatively to the strong possibility of a SYRIZA victory.  A Greek exit from the Eurozone and debt repudiation from the election of SYRIZA is not as worrying  for the European ruling class, but the question of how can that influence others in Europe is the issue.

Tsipras has not called for leaving the Euro and has asked instead for renegotiation of the debt to get 50% of an unserviceable debt relieved. So Greek exit is not a demand of SYRIZA, but that does not mean that the Eurozone will not ask them to leave. Also, if they get the renegotiation and still remain in the Eurozone, the question of the rules underlying the Euro come into play as they require caps on fiscal deficit and debt and hence limits to government spending. This is then compounded by economic fears of debt renegotiations affecting the financial markets as they find instability nerve-wracking and fears of what may happen lead to uncertainty.

The issue is one of a domino effect whereby Italy (on deflation and why financial markets are worried, see: http://uk.businessinsider.com/… Spain and Portugal will the same thing following the election of a left that has raised the issue of a rejection of austerity and debt repayments.  

That is the fear of the ruling classes, a popular rejection of austerity and neo-liberalism; that is a political fear of the ruling class in Europe and in the advanced capitalist world.

So should the left support SYRIZA? Yes, it will represent a significant defeat of the austerity agenda which is essential for the fightback against neoliberalism and the attack on the working class since the crash in 2007-8.

Is this all that we on the left want? By no means, but it is a major first step.  The support of the left and support of the organs of the working class in Greece will force them further to the left and to keep their electoral promises. The end of the struggle is not the election with a victory (hopefully a majority one).

SYRIZA needs the support of the left inside and outside Greece if this is to be a real victory and to keep them on track. If they are not pushed, then this may turn into a Pyrrhic victory where a left party wins and is forced into more and more concessions by the ruling class rather than fulfill its potential and be the beginning of an electoral and mass fight-back against neoliberalism.