Feb 09 2016

New Hampshire Primary Results- Open Thread

Polls are starting to close but there is a tremendous backlog indicating high turnout.

Every indication is that on the Democratic side Bernie Sanders will have a blowout victory with a margin of between 10 and 15%. Everything you’ve been hearing about name recognition and neighbor State advantage is a flat lie. New Hampshire hates Vermont and has since the Revolution when Ethan Allen and the Green Mountain Boys stole half the State (you could look it up).

Also, at the start of the campaign, Clinton had 100% name recognition to Sanders 25% and led the polls by over 50%.

When I say decisive victory all you have to do is look back to 2008 when Clinton came in at 39.1%, Obama at 36.5% and Edwards 16.9%. She was certainly quick enough to claim it then.

On the Republican side expectations are that Trump will walk away with 36 to 38% of the vote with Cruz and Kasich perhaps in the teens and Jeb! and Christie in the high single digits.

By comparison in 2008 John McCain had 37.1% and Mitt Romney 31.6%.

Why 2008? It was the last Presidential Election without an incumbent, apples to apples.

Barring delays due to the crushing volumes of voters, all polls will close by 8 pm ET. There will likely be an early call for Sanders, really, the only question is the margin. On the Republican side it might go either way. The media has been trying to suggest that Trump is not as strong as the last polling would indicate and has been going out of its way to find Jeb! and Kasich supporters since they are the kind of conservative centerists the Versailles Village loves.

No live blogging. Updating sporadic at best.

rustymancuso581

25 comments

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  1. Vent Hole

  2. At exactly 8 pm MSNBC calls it for Sanders and Trump

  3. C’mon Rachel. It’s not second. She lost.

  4. AP declared tRump and Sanders the winners in NH

  5. Just an aside: Did you know that today is #NationalPizzaDay? They need to warn us about these things

    1. That makes tomorrow morning national cold pizza breakfast day.

  6. Bernie won among all women.

  7. With 17% reporting, Sanders by 17 points

  8. 21.67% Reporting. Sanders by 18.7

  9. Over at GOS I expect great wailing, and gnashing of teeth and rending of garments.

    1. Rending of garments! That’s my favorite part.

  10. Good news! I had a relative same day register to feel the bern.

  11. 9 pm 25.67% Reporting. Sanders by 17.9

  12. 9:07 pm MSNBC Projects Kasich @ #2

  13. 9:13 pm Hillary Clinton concession speech.

  14. 30.22% Reporting. Sanders 18.2

  15. 9:25 pm Bernie Sanders victory speech.

  16. 36.67% Reporting. Sanders 18.8

  17. 9:56 pm Donald Trump victory speech.

  18. 47.33% Reporting. Trump by 17.5

  19. 10:10 pm Kasich first loser speech

  20. Rubio gets cut off for ads

  21. Cruz

  22. 10:30 pm 63% Reporting. Sanders by 20.8

  23. Heh.

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