Theresa May’s Brexit deal goes before Parliament a week after tomorrow and nothing is getting any better for her. The EU is saying this is the last, best deal and the only alternative is a No Deal exit to scare Members of Parliament into voting in favor.
Needless to say this naked and empty threat is decidedly not moving pro-Brexit Tories in May’s direction.
Empty? Oh my yes. There’s always that chance that Britain could change it’s mind and stay (looking better and better considering the alternatives) and supposedly that’s always been the EU’s preferred solution. No hard feelings (Hah!).
The Democratic Unionist Party, May’s coalition partners, have already said they’ll vote against the deal and against May in the Confidence Vote that is sure to follow failure. The lingering remnants of the Liberals have always been against Brexit, the Scottish National Party has always been against Brexit, Labour is split (there’s a Left case to make) in theory but will surely vote ‘No’ unanimously to force a General Election they will almost surely win decisively.
The likelihood of a Labour win is in fact the only card May has to play and it’s a very weak one that doesn’t do the job anyway. Conservatives are a minority government and even if they maintain 100% discipline with no defections can not carry the day.
So May is out, Snap Election, Labour Government and then what?
I still consider it likely the EU will relent and grant an extention on the March 29th 2019 deadline in order to allow the electoral process to finish. Corbyn led Labour is committed to a Second Referendum that will almost certainly result in a ‘Stay’ verdict now that the consequences of ‘Leave’ are clear and proximate.
And we get a Left Labour Government where the Tory-lite Neo Liberal Blairite Quislings are cowed if not banished.
What’s not to like?
I suppose I should mention the latest kerfluffle is May refused to release the full legal evaluation to Parliament which only increases the level of resentment. Going down in flames.
A general election could be on the way after DUP threatens to bring down Theresa May
by Adam Payne, Business Insider
12/3/18
A snap general election could be on its way after the Democratic Unionist Party, which props up Theresa May’s government, threatened to trigger a general election in order to kill her Brexit divorce deal.
Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer told Sky News on Sunday it was “inevitable” that Labour would move a no confidence motion in May’s government if MPs vote down her deal on Tuesday, December 11.
Now the DUP is preparing to withdraw its support for the prime minister in such a vote if, as expected, MPs vote to reject her Brexit deal next week, according to The Times.
In this scenario, May would be without the thin parliamentary advantage she’s had since the 2017 general election and at risk of a majority of MPs voting to get rid of her. For the DUP, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour winning a possible subsequent election is more palatable than the deal which May has agreed with the EU, the report suggests.
The DUP loathes the Withdrawal Agreement because under the backstop proposal for avoiding a hard Irish border, Northern Ireland would stick to parts of the single market, creating new border checks with rest of the UK.
The party, that has 10 MPs in Westminster, has already abstained on a number of parliamentary votes in recent weeks in a warning to the prime minister that they are not bluffing about their threats to abandon her.
An increasingly restless DUP is just one thing for May to worry about this week.
On Tuesday, a five-day debate on her Brexit deal will get underway prior to the meaningful vote next week. MPs from all sides are set to chastise her deal with some estimates suggesting a landslide defeat of over 100 MPs.
Today the prime minister will resume her efforts to sell the deal, telling MPs about her visit to the G20 summit in Argentina over the weekend and the free trade deals the UK will be able to sign around the world after Brexit.
“For the first time in more than 40 years we will have an independent trade policy,” she will tell MPs.
Exactly how “independent” the UK’s trade policy will be after Brexit is just one of the concerns among pro-Brexit MPs. Under the backstop, the UK will be in a customs union with the EU, meaning its trading ability will be limited.
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox will today reveal to MPs at least some of the legal advice he has given to the government about the controversial backstop policy, including what it would mean for the UK’s trade policy.
MPs are particularly concerned about the backstop element of May’s deal because it would keep the UK in a customs union with the EU after Brexit indefinitely, with no fixed end date or unilateral right to get out of it.
However, Cox is not set to disclose his legal advice in full, despite the government seemingly agreeing to do so last month. Labour has threatened to join forces with other opposition parties, including the DUP, and write to Commons Speaker John Bercow accusing the government of contempt of Parliament if it doesn’t publish the advice in full.
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