Apr 01 2020

Good Morning Campers!

I’m your Uncle Ernie and I welcome you to Tommy’s Holiday Camp! The Camp with a difference, never mind the weather. When you come to Tommy’s, the Holiday’s forever!

Hah, hah, hah, hah!

Down 410 yesterday, Limit Downs today.

Dow set to fall 700 points at the open after market posts worst first quarter on record
by Maggie Fitzgerald, CNBC
Tue, Mar 31 2020

U.S. stock futures dropped early Wednesday morning and pointed to sizable declines at the open, following the end of the worst first quarter on record for the Dow and S&P 500 spurred by the coronavirus sell-off.

At around 4:50 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 703 points, indicating an opening loss of about 741 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures also pointed to losses at the open.

President Donald Trump said Tuesday evening the U.S. should prepare for a “very, very painful two weeks” from the rampant coronavirus. White House officials are projecting between 100,000 and 240,000 virus deaths in the U.S.

“This is going to be a rough two-week period,” Trump said at a White House press conference. “When you look at night the kind of death that has been caused by this invisible enemy, it’s incredible.”

On Tuesday, the Dow fell 410 points or 1.8% to 21,917.16, weighed down by American Express, which dropped more than 5%. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 2,584.59 and Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 1% to 7,700.10. At its session high, the Dow was up more than 150 points.

The Dow secured its worst first-quarter performance ever, losing more than 23% of its value in the first three months of 2020. The 30-stock benchmark had its worst quarter since 1987. The S&P 500 fell 20% in the first quarter, its worst first quarter ever and its biggest quarterly loss since 2008. The Nasdaq fell more than 14% in the first quarter.

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said that the coronavirus driven market rout will worsen again in April, taking out the March low.

“The low we hit in the middle of March … I would bet that low will get taken out,” Gundlach said in an investor webcast on Tuesday. “The market has really made it back to a resistance zone. … Take out the low of march and then we’ll get a more enduring low.”

Ok, I have to stop there and say, true! There is still no technical limit to how low it can go and historical P/Es indicate a valuation in the 10,000s.

But I repeat myself.

The coronavirus pandemic has caused a nationwide shutdown of the economy, halting business production and leaving millions of American workers unemployed. The unprecedented societal disruption has caused financial distress and volatility never seen before, ultimately causing the wort first quarter in history for both the Dow and the S&P 500.

“The quarter will be remembered as the fastest and greatest drop in the stock Market for the start of any post-war bear market,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. “This reflects the fact that this Bear is the only one cause by a recession which was simply ‘proclaimed’ as leaders announced they were essential shutting down the economy. Since a recession was ensured, the Bear skipped all its normal foreplay and simply went right to the end fully reflecting a recession almost immediately.”

U.S. oil experienced its worst month and quarter in history, losing more than 66% of its value in the first three months of the year. Demand has evaporated due to the coronavirus outbreak and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN that he is starting to see “glimmers” that social distancing is helping to lessen the spread of the coronavirus. Meanwhile, U.S. cases of the fast-spreading virus have topped 177,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. The death roll from the virus in America has surpassed 3,400.

So, like more than 9/11 which really, get over it.

Wall Street also posted sharp losses for the month. The Dow and S&P 500 fell 13.7% and 12.5%, respectively, in March for their worst one-month declines since the 2008 financial crisis.

Come, watch the Neoliberal Economy burn in flames with me. Toast a Wienie or a Marshmallow.

Oh, you just think I’m fooling.

BTW, happy anniversary to me. I’m 15 Years at this handle (You are not your Avatar) and I promise to continue being as obnoxious as possible and keep the Poet’s Pledge-

To be peculiar in the most unusual way I can cook up
To write excellently, or more especially to be known to write excellently
To master bards of old and bards anew, or at least never give on that I haven’t
To advance in gestures of my own and not in the stirrings of a majority, except where money is at stake
To be perceived as morally suspect, no matter what the truth
To sniff at adulation and pooh-pooh honors no matter how much I crave them
To obey whim and eschew duty, or at least appear to
To rove ruffian-like across continents of poems with ease, or at least make them think so
To engage in ridiculous arguments, all hot and sweaty for my own position
To be judicious only in the judging of my own merits and mean about the others
To die young, or if I linger, to be ignored and abused well
To write tons of crap for every good poem I do write, and obfuscate the difference with rhetoric
To suck up to important editors with honeyed words, and cuff the assistant editors often
To bemoan the sorry state of poetry in my country and do not one damn thing about it
To speak so incoherently that everyone thinks I am a genius

In the words of Trevor Noah, now you know, though I don’t disguise it. Why am I a Master Sergeant (equal in pay and superior in rank to a First Sergeant but with less Leadership responsibility)? Fifteen Years of undiscovered crime.