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Apr 06 2020

Let’s Do Some Maths, Shall We?

Even the most conservative estimates suggest that eventual exposure to Coronavirus is inevitable for 90% of the population here in the United States.

Now, it’s not Pancreatic Cancer and Doctors can help but you’ll probably be very, very sick and you could die. What we are doing now with the Social Distancing is attempting to slow the rate of exposure so we don’t run out of beds and Ventilators because if you’re so sick you need them-

You do.

Other things are Medium and Long term solutions. It’s possible that shortly more test kits, some of which are reputed to detect previous exposure and thus presumed immunity, may be available. There might be some more N95s if we can keep Unindicted Co-conspirator Bottomless Pinocchio’s sticky and tiny hands off.

Literally, don’t hold your breath waiting for more Ventilators. They’re not the kind of thing you assemble out of spare parts in your garage. Best case 3 Months for any measurable increase.

And Elon Musk is a fabulist.

Vaccines are not going to be here until May 2021. Hydroxychloroquine is not just ineffective garbage (unless you have Malaria, Rheumatoid Arthritis, Lupus, or Porphyria Cutanea Tarda) but is dangerous! Lots of people have died from the Side Effects and Overdosing. A treatment option that might be effective since many Fatalities are the result of a Cytokine Storm (basically an Immune System run amok) would be an Immune System suppressant. We have a bunch of them that are used for everything from Transplant Rejection to Eczema (mine is under control at the moment and I’m not in Treatment). Well, they’re testing them. Some are pretty harsh, many have fewer bad reactions than Hydroxychloroquine (like, not as easy to Overdose- have I told you about Tylanol?).

So it’s not like there’s entirely no hope, but now we crunch the numbers.

Maths

I’ve seen estimates of Mortality in the 4% range which is probably excessive but data on the General Population is thin because we don’t have enough Tests nor any that show previous exposure. We might find it substantially lower and what we’re measuring now is people who feel sick enough to go to the Hospital (and one that has Tests).

For this exercise I will assume a Mortality Rate (how likely you are to die despite the best Doctors can do) of 2%.

Yay! 98% of you will 100% die, though from something else like getting hit by a Bus. If you don’t like that I’ll be happy to talk about Entropy and the Heat Death of the Universe in about 14 Billion Years some time.

How many are there of you? Well in round numbers (they call them that because of the Zeros) 330 Million here in the U.S.A. and that’s all we care about isn’t it because we’re so damn exceptional.

Even there I’ll be charitable and assume only 50% of the Population is exposed. Well, that’s 165 Million.

2% of 165 Million is 3.3 Million. Try it on your Calculator.

Per a Kiev Court’s finding Stalin’s Holodomor (the Famine Genocide of the Ukraine) starved 3.9 Million people to death. Hitler’s Holocaust killed about 6 Million Jews and 11 Million others.

But it’s not like the difference is an order of magnitude or anything.

And in a widely reported development, a Tiger at the Bronx Zoo has been diagnosed with Coronavirus.