Author's posts

“Why is it so hard to see that train a comin’?”

Barry Ritholtz is a contributor to Seeking Alpha and is notable for his insights on the housing market and his book Bailout Nation.

Now this video is quite long, 24 minutes, but it has a lot of insight and if (like me) your cable is still out and you’re desperate for anything slightly resembling TV you might find it interesting.

lambert at Corrente (the blog that everybody hates and nobody reads) was taken by the fashion statement.  I only hope orange becomes the ‘in color’.

Barry Ritholtz: The Effect Of Corruption On The Markets – Aug. 27

I must admit on my system it’s pretty cranky and I had to goose it past the second break.  Try moving the slider forward if you get lost in buffer land, don’t forget to restart the video.

Title quote @ aboot 4:09.  lambert’s fave @ 4:46ish.  Folsom Prison Blues below.

Evening Edition

Evening Edition is an Open Thread

From Yahoo News Top Stories

1 China jails more Tibetan monks, US concerned

AFP

2 hrs 40 mins ago

A Chinese court Tuesday sentenced two more Tibetan monks to jail time over a self-immolation protest at their monastery, as the United States voiced concern and urged Beijing to address grievances.

A monk at the flashpoint Kirti monastery in a mainly Tibetan area of Sichuan province named Phuntsog set himself on fire on March 16, the third anniversary of protests in Lhasa and neighboring areas against Chinese rule.

His death triggered a fresh clampdown by authorities nervous about renewed anti-government unrest.

How Can The Wealthy Be So Greedy?

It’s a topic I’ve addressed before-

How to feel poor on $500,000 a year

Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 06:46:14 AM EDT

In Which Mr. Deling Responds to Someone Who Might Be Professor Todd Henderson

J. Bradford DeLong, Department of Economics, U.C. Berkeley

September 18, 2010

Professor Henderson’s problem is that he thinks that he ought to be able to pay off student loans, contribute to retirement savings vehicles, build equity, drive new cars, live in a big expensive house, send his children to private school, and still have plenty of cash at the end of the month for the $200 restaurant meals, the $1000 a night resort hotel rooms, and the $75,000 automobiles. And even half a million dollars a year cannot (get) you all of that.



(W)hy does he think that that is the way things should be? … (H)ere is the dirty secret: Professor Henderson thinks that that is the way things should be because he knows people for whom that is the way it is.



Of the 100 people richer than he is, fully ten have more than four times his income. And he knows of one person with 20 times his income. He knows who the really rich are, and they have ten times his income: They have not $450,000 a year. They have $4.5 million a year. And, to him, they are in a different world.

And so he is sad. He and his wife deserve to be successful. And he knows people who are successful. But he is not one of them–widening income inequality over the past generation has excluded him from the rich who truly have money.

I’ll note that Mr. Deling has respectfully redacted the name of the offending asshole, but I’m free to shout it from the roof tops.

Professor Todd Henderson of the University of Chicago Law School!

So what has changed?  Things have gotten worse of course!

"Who rules America? Breaking down the top 1%"

by Gaius Publius, Americablog

on 8/29/2011 10:55:00 AM

(T)his article breaks down the top 1% of American wealth into strata, and talks about the differences. It’s a really instructive piece, and an easy read.

The Lower Half of the Top 1%

The 99th to 99.5th percentiles largely include physicians, attorneys, upper middle management, and small business people who have done well. Everyone’s tax situation is, of course, a little different. On earned income in this group, we can figure somewhere around 25% to 30% of total pre-tax income will go to Federal, State, and Social Security taxes, leaving them with around $250k to $300k post tax. This group makes extensive use of 401-k’s, SEP-IRA’s, Defined Benefit Plans, and other retirement vehicles, which defer taxes until distribution during retirement. Typical would be yearly contributions in the $50k to $100k range, leaving our elite working group with yearly cash flows of $175k to $250k after taxes, or about $15k to $20k per month.

Until recently, most studies just broke out the top 1% as a group. Data on net worth distributions within the top 1% indicate that one enters the top 0.5% with about $1.8M, the top 0.25% with $3.1M, the top 0.10% with $5.5M and the top 0.01% with $24.4M. Wealth distribution is highly skewed towards the top 0.01%, increasing the overall average for this group. The net worth for those in the lower half of the top 1% is usually achieved after decades of education, hard work, saving and investing as a professional or small business person. While an after-tax income of $175k to $250k and net worth in the $1.2M to $1.8M range may seem like a lot of money to most Americans, it doesn’t really buy freedom from financial worry or access to the true corridors of power and money. That doesn’t become frequent until we reach the top 0.1%.



(T)he people above, the “lower half of the top 1%”, still work for a living. I would put them at the top level of the “retainer class” – wealthy, but still servants.

In Roman times, these would be the very-well-off top-level administrators and professionals, many of them ex-Greek slaves, who service the real Masters (the emperor and wealthier senatorial families) and oversee the constant flow of peasant wealth upwards, from which they get a hand-me-down share.

For the author, the key American economic super-strata are:

  • 99.0%-99.5%  –  The lower half of the top 1%
  • 99.5%-99.9%  –  Most of the upper half of the top 1%
  • The top 0.1%  –  The Big Boyz (and Girlz, but very few of those)
  • The top 0.01%  –  Where most of the real wealth is concentrated

The first sub-group has a lot of retirement anxiety, as the article makes clear; and the second has some guilt. Guess where the power lies.

I like Gaius.  I like what he writes and I understand from TheMomCat who has met him that he’s a very nice guy.  He has another piece earlier that touches on the same subject-

$2 of every $3 in income growth from 2002-2007 went to the upper 1%

by Gaius Publius, Americablog

on 8/25/2011 08:21:00 PM

Not the upper 10%; the upper 1%. (2002 is the bottom of the tech crash; 2007 is just pre-the bank crash.)

Another bad stat – In 1967, 97% of prime age men with only HS diplomas were working. Today, the number is 76%. Stunning; the middle class (the real one, not the faux-middle class we see on TV) is collapsing hard from within.

All of this comes via Don Peck and his new Atlantic article, “Can the Middle Class Be Saved?“.



Peck makes several points that regular readers will be familiar with – in particular, the notion that the super-rich (Our Betters) have not only delinked their expenses from the U.S. economy – they’re started to delink their incomes from it as well.



The run-up in wealth inequality is the big story of this generation; in my view, a world-historical event that will have a world-historical outcome if we’re not careful. This wealth will be redistributed, one way or another, in this generation or a later one.

Fascinating stuff.  I encourage you to click the links.

Evening Edition

Evening Edition is an Open Thread

From Yahoo News Top Stories

1 NASA: Space station may be evacuated by late November

By MARCIA DUNN, AP Aerospace Writer

40 mins ago

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) – Astronauts may need to take the unprecedented step of temporarily abandoning the International Space Station if last week’s Russian launch accident prevents new crews from flying there this fall.

Until officials figure out what went wrong with Russia’s essential Soyuz rockets, there will be no way to launch any more astronauts before the current residents have to leave in mid-November.

The unsettling predicament comes just weeks after NASA’s final space shuttle flight.

Flyover Country

I imagine that today one can hardly get away from reports about the aftermath of Irene.  I say I magine it because the most serious effects here in Stars Hollow were losing a chunk of shingles (pretty expensive but not devastating) and cable TV (an annoyance) so I cannot report from first hand knowledge.

It’s easy to forget what happened a mere 6 years ago.

Hurricane Katrina makes landfall

The New York Times

Published: Monday, August 29, 2005

NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana – Hurricane Katrina slammed ashore early Monday and charged toward low-lying New Orleans with 150-mph (240-kph) winds and the threat of an extremely dangerous storm surge.

Katrina turned slightly to the east before slamming ashore early Monday with 145-mph (233-kph) winds, providing some hope that the worst of the storm’s wrath might not be directed at this vulnerable, below-sea-level city.

But National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield warned that New Orleans would be pounded throughout the day Monday and that Katrina’s potential 20-foot ( 6-meter) storm surge was still more than capable of swamping the city.

Has New Orleans recovered?  Not as much as you might hope.  As noted in last night’s Evening Edition

42 6 years later, Lower 9th Ward still bleak

By CAIN BURDEAU, Associated Press

5 hrs ago

NEW ORLEANS (AP) – In New Orleans’ Lower 9th Ward, the grasses grow taller than people and street after street is scarred by empty decaying houses, the lives that once played out inside their walls hardly imaginable now.

St. Claude Avenue, the once moderately busy commercial thoroughfare, looks like the main street of a railroad town bypassed long ago by the interstate. Most buildings are shuttered, “For Sale” signs stuck on their sides. There aren’t many buyers. And the businesses that are open are mostly corner stores where folks buy pricey cigarettes, liquor and packaged food.

Six years after Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast, the New Orleans neighborhood that was hardest hit still looks like a ghost town. Redevelopment has been slow in coming, and the neighborhood has just 5,500 residents – one-third its pre-Katrina population.

And let’s not forget this-

Officers Guilty of Shooting Six in New Orleans

By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON, The New York Times

Published: August 5, 2011

NEW ORLEANS – In a verdict that brought a decisive close to a case that has haunted this city since most of it lay underwater nearly six years ago, five current and former New Orleans police officers were found guilty on all counts by a federal jury on Friday for shooting six citizens, two of whom died, and orchestrating a wide-ranging cover-up in the hours, weeks and years that followed. ing a wide-ranging cover-up in the hours, weeks and years that followed.

The defendants were convicted on 25 counts, including federal civil rights violations in connection with the two deaths, for the violence and deception that began on the Danziger Bridge in eastern New Orleans on Sept. 4, 2005, just days after Hurricane Katrina hit and the levees failed.

“The officers convicted today abused their power and violated the public’s trust during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, exacerbating one of the most devastating times for the people of New Orleans,” Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. said.  “I am hopeful today’s verdict brings justice for the victims and their family members, helps to heal the community and contributes to the restoration of public trust in the New Orleans Police Department.”

Category Error- Trumka

“Barack Obama’s a friend,” he said, “and when you place him in the context of those who are running against him right now, he is a giant.”

(h/t Art Pronin @ Taylor Marsh)

In context, the lesser of two evils is still evil.  Without making politicians and other elites pay for their failures there is no incentive for them to change behavior.

Economics calls this Moral Hazard.

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From Yahoo News Top Stories

1 Germany celebrates 125 years of the automobile

By Estelle Peard, AFP

15 hrs ago

Germany is celebrating this year the birth of the automobile, with a patent applied for by Carl Benz 125 years ago for a motorized tricycle, in hopes of drawing tourists smitten by cars.

The national tourism office has made the auto industry a highlight of its annual programme for the first time and the southwestern region of Baden-Wuerttemburg alone has organised 200 events from May through September.

Anyone travelling to the regional capital Stuttgart will not miss the Mercedes star that sits above the main train station or the posters that advertise the local auto museum.

F1: Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps

As usual, you got the good stuff yesterday.  Today I’ll just ramble.

Overall Qualifying was more entertaining than it usually is.  Conditions were wet with rain in fits and a drying line at the end when they brought out the Softs.  If it rains again today many teams will be in trouble since you only get 3 sets of Inters for the weekend and you had to use them all during Practice and most of Qualifying.

Schumacher lost his wheel nut, no deeper explanation given yet.  Button walked back his rather harsh criticism of McLaren, he felt he had been called in too early but later said he lost track of the lap count and didn’t give it all he might have.  Senna did much better than expected despite a faulty KERS which is a big problem for Heidfeld, but also for Romain Grosjean who clinched his GP 2 title yesterday.  Hamilton’s contact with Maldonado after the end of Qualifying was resolved in favor of Hamilton with Maldonado suffering a 5 position penalty and Hamilton a mere reprimand.  All 4 drivers who failed the 107% rule were given passes to race.  So much for that rule.

As an aside, has anyone besides me noticed that there is much more media attention now that the season is almost finished?  Yesterday’s Evening Edition coverage came from all 3 wire services- AFP (11), Reuters (28), and AP (44).

What will we see today?  Well it kind of depends on the weather.  If Irene knocks out my power, internet, or cable I won’t see much, you’ll have to make your own fun.  It has rained all weekend at Spa and if it’s not dry enough for Softs I don’t know what the stewards will do (my Dad says they’d be idiots not to issue another set of Inters and Wets).  I note that as I write this during the start of the GP 2 preliminary you can see shadows, but there are clouds in the sky.

Other than that there are some fast guys at the back of the grid so there will be some off lead racing as people move up.  There have been no substantial changes to the cars except Renault who has been falling farther and farther behind Mercedes in the second tier group.

Scuderia Marlboro UPC has taken it’s engineering group off this year’s car and put it on next year’s machine.  ‘We must get off to a fast start!’ says Maranello.  They said that last year and the year before too.  The truth is that only 2 teams are strong enough to continue development for this year AND develop for next- McLaren and Red Bull (which is strong enough to support 2 teams).

The Driver’s Championship is all but decided.  Heidfeld’s mathematical chances were that he had to finish first and Vettel DNF for all the remaining races and everyone else is in pretty much the same boat.  The Constructor’s Championship would be closer if McLaren made better decisions and could ever finish 2 cars in the same race.

This is race 12 of 19, not halfway, and who knows, lightning could stri

Enjoy the rest of the season.  Speed coverage starts at 7:30 am.  Pretty tables below.

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