Tag: ek Politics

An Annual Reminder.

Echo… echo… echo… Pinch hitting for Pedro Borbon… Manny Mota… Mota… Mota…

You may remember my brother the activist.  I keep trying to get him to post, but he’s shy and busy.  He sent me this yesterday and I thought I’d share it with you.

I need to add that he’s a great admirer of James Carville’s political savvy (though not his policies) and one story he likes to tell is how during the height of Monica-gate Carville was on one of the Talking Head shows and made a point about how important it is to stay on message.  Carville then proceeded to demonstrate his gift by working the phrase “Cigarette Lawyer Ken Starr” 27 times into the next 30 seconds.- ek

The date – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 – August 6, 2001 needs to be as well known to Joe and Jane American as September 11, 2001.

Presidential Daily Briefing of August 6, 2001 PDB

Declassified and Approved for Release, 10 April 2004

Presidential Daily Briefing: August 6, 2001 – Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.

Clandestine, foreign government, and media reports indicate Bin Ladin since 1997 has wanted to conduct foreign terrorist attacks on the U.S. Bin Ladin implied in U.S. television interviews in 1997 and 1998 that his followers would follow the example of World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef and “bring the fighting to America.”

Presidential Daily Briefing: August 6, 2001 – Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.

After U.S. missile strikes on his base in Afghanistan in 1998, Bin Ladin told followers he wanted to retaliate in Washington, according to a [deleted] service.

Presidential Daily Briefing: August 6, 2001 – Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.

An Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) operative told an [deleted] service at the same that Bin Ladin was planning to exploit the operative’s access to the U.S. to mount a terrorist strike.

Presidential Daily Briefing: August 6, 2001 – Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.

FBI information since that time indicates patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for hijackings or other types of attacks, including recent surveillance of federal buildings in New York.

Presidential Daily Briefing: August 6, 2001 – Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.

The FBI is conducting approximately 70 full field investigations throughout the U.S. that it considers Bin Ladin-related. CIA and the FBI are investigating a call to our Embassy in the UAE in May saying that a group of Bin Ladin supporters was in the U.S. planning attacks with explosives.

So Vice President Dick, tell me again how the REPUBLICANS WILL KEEP US SAFE?

So Senator McSame, tell me again how invading and occupying IRAQ has helped the U.S. hunt down BIN LADEN?

I’m printing my own bumper stickers filled with images from 9-11 and this text-

“I don’t think anybody could have predicted that these people would take an airplane and slam it into the World Trade Center”- Condoleezza Rice, National Security Advisor

“All right. You’ve covered your ass now.”- George W. Bush

As I assemble this the DOW is once again down over 200 points and the question is whether it will remain above 11,000 at the close.

Rates of Wrath

August 4, 2011, 11:41 am

The US 10-year bond rate is now down to 2.5%. So much for those bond vigilantes. What this rate is saying is that markets are pricing in terrible economic performance, quite possibly a double dip. And it also says that Washington’s deficit obsession has been utterly, totally wrong-headed.

Meanwhile, Italy’s spread against German bonds is soaring even further. What are markets pricing in here? Default as a real possibility; maybe even euro breakup. The latter certainly sounds a lot more plausible now than it did a few months ago.

The Wrong Worries

By PAUL KRUGMAN, The New York Times

Published: August 4, 2011

Consider one crucial measure, the ratio of employment to population. In June 2007, around 63 percent of adults were employed. In June 2009, the official end of the recession, that number was down to 59.4. As of June 2011, two years into the alleged recovery, the number was: 58.2.

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And why should we be surprised at this catastrophe? Where was growth supposed to come from? Consumers, still burdened by the debt that they ran up during the housing bubble, aren’t ready to spend. Businesses see no reason to expand given the lack of consumer demand. And thanks to that deficit obsession, government, which could and should be supporting the economy in its time of need, has been pulling back.

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Those plunging interest rates and stock prices say that the markets aren’t worried about either U.S. solvency or inflation. They’re worried about U.S. lack of growth. And they’re right, even if on Wednesday the White House press secretary chose, inexplicably, to declare that there’s no threat of a double-dip recession.

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The point is that it’s now time – long past time – to get serious about the real crisis the economy faces. The Fed needs to stop making excuses, while the president needs to come up with real job-creation proposals.

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This might or might not work. But we already know what isn’t working: the economic policy of the past two years – and the millions of Americans who should have jobs, but don’t.

You know, it’s just a stinking Nobel Prize in Economics.  This guy knows nothing.

Pulling Rank

August 5, 2011, 9:12 am

I’ll pass the specific arguments by, and note another feature of this “debate” that has struck me a lot during recent economic controversies: the way Williamson tries to settle the argument by pulling rank, portraying Quiggin as some kind of obscure and unqualified guy.

It’s funny in this case, because Quiggin is in fact a prominent economist, Williamson not so much. But even if this weren’t true, that’s no way to argue. Which is why it has been so sad to see how common this kind of argument has been in recent years.

I don’t have time right now to track down all the examples, but if you look at how many freshwater macroeconomists have responded to Keynesian arguments in this crisis, you find over and over again that they resort to assertions of privilege – basically, I am a famous macroeconomic expert and you aren’t – rather than really addressing the issues. And this is so ingrained a response, apparently, that they use it in situations where it’s truly ridiculous: Lucas accusing Christy Romer of not understanding basic macro, then demonstrating that he doesn’t understand Ricardian equivalence; Barro belittling the credentials of yours truly, just after forgetting that there was rationing and investment controls during World War II.

Caasandra Herr Doktor Professor–

It’s kind of annoying when people claim that I said the stimulus would work; how much noisier could I have been in warning both that it was grossly inadequate, and that by claiming that a far-too-small stimulus was just right, Obama would discredit the whole idea?

Of course, the WSJ also said that the stimulus wouldn’t work. The difference was in how it was supposed to fail.

The WSJ view was that federal borrowing would crowd out private spending by driving interest rates sky-high, that the bond vigilantes would destroy the economy. Note that when the linked editorial was published, the 10-year rate was at 3.7%, with the Journal in effect predicting that it would go much higher.

My view was that government borrowing in a liquidity trap does not drive up rates, and indeed that rates would stay low as long as the economy stayed depressed.

How it turned out.

That’s a pretty clear test; among other things, you would have lost a lot of money if you believed the WSJ view.

Inflation is another issue; the WSJ kept telling readers that a big inflationary surge was coming. Commodity prices have muddied this issue to some extent, but even so actual developments on the inflation front have been a lot closer to what Keynesians were predicting than to the right-wing line.

Of course, I would much rather have actually had adequate policy than be vindicated by the form of our economic failure.

Meteorology is a science.

• If the rock is wet, it’s raining.
• If the rock is swinging, the wind is blowing.
• If the rock casts a shadow, the sun is shining.
• If the rock does not cast a shadow and is not wet, the sky is cloudy.
• If the rock is not visible, it is foggy.
• If the rock is white, it is snowing.
• If the rock is coated with ice, there is a frost.
• If the ice is thick, it’s a heavy frost.
• If the rock is bouncing, there is an earthquake.
• If the rock is under water, there is a flood.
• If the rock is warm, it is sunny.
• If the rock is missing, there was a tornado.

Economics?  No so much.

Jobless Claims Remain Elevated

By LUCA DI LEO And JEFF BATER, The Wall Street Journal

AUGUST 4, 2011, 8:34 A.M. ET

New claims for unemployment insurance fell by just 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 400,000 in the week ended July 30, the Labor Department said Thursday. That followed a 21,000 decline the previous week, which was revised from an originally reported 24,000 drop.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast claims would rise by 7,000 in the latest week.

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Fears are growing that a new recession may follow the severe downturn of 2008 and 2009. Three former top officials at the Federal Reserve put the odds between 20% and 40% in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. A Labor Department report out Friday is expected to show the unemployment rate remained at 9.2% last month, more than two years after the recession ended.

Thursday’s report showed the number of continuing unemployment benefit claims — those drawn by workers for more than a week — rose by 10,000 to 3,730,000 in the week ended July 23.

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U.S. consumers cut spending in June at the fastest pace in nearly two years, raising concerns that the economy is stalling largely because of underlying weakness following the financial crisis and not just temporary factors seen in recent months, such as higher prices for food and gas.

For Democrats, the congressional budget deal is a Satan Sandwich.

So I’m watching CNBC and their stock spokesmodel is saying “Well, it’s a sea of red out there but we’re trying to focus on the green.”

CEO- “What people are missing is that corporate fundamentals are much better than economic fundamentals.”

Indeed.

I don’t know that I have much more to add so here’s a video-

Dow down 265.87, below 12,000.  S&P negative for the year, below 200 day moving average.  Both longest losing streak since October 2008.

You remember, the big crash.

“The bond market is not worried about our ability to pay our debts, they’re worried about our ability to grow.”

The Hidden History of the Debt Limit Hijack: Democrats Started It

By: David Dayen, Firedog Lake

Monday August 1, 2011 1:26 pm

I have a piece in the American Prospect today on five turning points in the debt limit fight. I think they’re actually in descending order of importance, and the biggest one is right at the top – this deal is the function of horrible economic stewardship in 2009 and 2010.

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There is one turning point I, because of space constraints, did not include in there. That happened at the end of 2009, when Evan Bayh, Kent Conrad, Dianne Feinstein, Mark Warner and Joe Lieberman threatened to not increase the debt limit if they didn’t get in place a fiscal commission that would recommend spending and entitlement cuts. That’s right, Democrats started the hijacking of the debt limit. Barely anybody remembers this, but it set the stage for the deal being voted on today.

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For the first time, perhaps in history, members of Congress tied spending cuts to raising the debt limit. This was the blueprint off of which John Boehner and the Republicans worked. The panel that Conrad wanted, along with Judd Gregg, would have had a mandate to reduce the deficit through spending caps, tax reform and entitlements, and would have submitted recommendations for an up-or-down vote without amendments or the possibility of the filibuster. That’s EXACTLY what’s in the bill being voted on today.

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At this point, President Obama, who had pivoted onto deficit reduction at the end of 2009, said he would by executive order put together the deficit commission. And so the original Catfood Commission was born. They’ve been talking about deficits in Washington, in the middle of a jobs crisis, ever since.

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The President could have stepped in at any time and shut that down. He could have told Conrad or Bayh to shut up and follow his lead. But this assumes that the President was against the whole idea of deficit reduction in the first place. We know he was not. In fact, all of these alternative solutions have to assume an actor in the White House who wanted to see a clean debt limit increase. It’s important for the public to know there were alternative, pushed by liberals and progressives, to what we see coming to pass today. But it’s just as important to recognize that nobody currently in power wanted to pursue them.

The WØRD- 8/1/11

The only way for lawmakers to avoid voter reprisals is by creating an anonymous Super Congress.  With the proposed Super Congress, only 12 lawmakers will have to make unpopular recommendations, and the rest of Congress can avoid blame.

Why yes, I am guest hosting TDS/TCR.  Thank you for asking.

Just to answer my rhetorical question from today’s Monday Business Edition, things are very bad indeed.  I particularly like this piece because it’s got lots of crunchy numbers.

Recession Took Bigger Bite Than Estimated

By Alex Kowalski, Bloomberg News

Jul 29, 2011 8:30 AM ET

Gross domestic product shrank 5.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, compared with the previously reported 4.1 percent drop, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The second-worst contraction in the post-World War II era was a 3.7 percent decline in 1957-58.

Meaning this is the worst since the Great Depression.

(T)he jobless rate doubled, climbing from 5 percent at the start of the downturn to a 26-year high 10.1 percent in October 2009. The strongest quarter of the recovery is now the first three months of last year. Growth decelerated every quarter thereafter.

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The improved GDP reading for 2010 belies a marked slowdown over the year. After expanding at a 3.9 percent annual pace in the first three months, now the strongest quarter of the recovery, growth cooled until reaching a 2.3 percent rate from October through December.

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The economy expanded at a 1.3 percent annual rate from April through June of this year, less than forecast, the Commerce Department’s advance report for the second showed. Growth in the prior three months was revised down to 0.4 percent from 1.9 percent. … GDP has yet to surpass the pre-recession peak.

So what’s a State or Community to do to create economic growth?

How about host a Nuclear Waste Dump?

Volunteer Towns Sought for Nuclear Waste Sites, Panel Says

By Brian Wingfield, Bloomberg News

Jul 29, 2011 5:07 PM ET

U.S. communities should be encouraged to vie for a federal nuclear-waste site as a way to end a decades-long dilemma over disposing of spent radioactive fuel, a commission established by President Barack Obama said.

A “consent-based” approach will help cut costs and end delays caused when the federal government picks a site over the objections of local residents, the Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future said today in a draft report to Energy Secretary Steven Chu.

Did you hear that?  Blue Ribbon!  How could they recommend anything bad?

The 15-member commission set up by Obama in 2010 is weighing options for disposing of waste from U.S. nuclear power plants. Chu named the panelists after Obama canceled plans to build a permanent repository at Nevada’s Yucca Mountain, about 100 miles (161 kilometers) north of Las Vegas. The Yucca site was opposed by politicians from the state, led by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat.

The panel recommended that a new federal corporation run the disposal program, taking over the task from the Energy Department. It also called for designating permanent and interim storage sites, supporting research and overhauling the Nuclear Waste Fund, which has $24.6 billion from fees paid by utilities.

And they’re going to privatize it!  No icky bureaucrats.  What could possibly go wrong?

Japan’s nuclear disaster this year focused new attention on the issue. Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant suffered meltdowns and radiation leaks after a March 11 earthquake and tsunami, prompting concerns about the safety of spent fuel in cooling pools.

So we’re going to concentrate it!  Too bad for you New Mexico.

The Blue Ribbon Commission cited as a “success” the U.S. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant near Carlsbad, New Mexico, which has accepted and disposed of some defense-related nuclear waste for more than a decade. The defense-waste plant shows that “nuclear wastes can be transported safely over long distances and placed securely in a deep, mined repository,” the report said.

With the right incentives, “there will be a great deal of support” for a waste site near the New Mexico facility, former Senator Pete Domenici, a Republican from the state and panel member, said in an April 19 interview.

Who needs caves when you have Barack Obama in charge?

Herr Doktor Professor–

What Would I Have Done?

August 1, 2011, 11:01 am

I would have made a statement declaring that giving in to this kind of blackmail would constitute a violation of my oath of office, and that my lawyers, on careful reflection, have determined that there are several legal options that allow me to ignore this extortionate demand.

Now, the Obama people say that this wasn’t actually an option. Well, I hate to say this, but I don’t believe them.

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It’s much, much too late for Obama and co. to say “Trust us, we know what we’re doing.” My reservoir of trust is now completely drained. And I know I’m not alone.

Where’s My Relief Rally?

August 1, 2011, 11:05 am

Weren’t we supposed to have a big rally in the stock market now that the threat of default was past and our deficit was on the way to being solved?

Um, well.

Dow down 77 at the moment. And long-term interest rates – a barometer of hope or lack thereof in recovery – have fallen to 2.73 percent.

Mr. Market is apparently underwhelmed.

Meanwhile, in the Global Economy

August 1, 2011, 11:37 am

Bad news all over. In the US, Manufacturing growth hits lowest level in 2 years. In Europe, my favorite current indicator of the eurozone crisis, the Italy-Germany bond spread, has blown out again. And while part of this is due to falling German rates – which, like falling US rates, reflect growing pessimism about growth – the Italian bond rate is once again at 6 percent, a level that invites a self-fulfilling debt spiral.

Oh, and in Britain, poster child for wonderful expansionary austerity, we have this:

For the fifth consecutive month, the manufacturing sector has disappointed expectations. In the past six months, the headline composite index has crashed by 12.5 points, a record only exceeded post-Lehman in 2008. Output has been slightly better behaved over the past few months, but July’s 2 point decline to 50.6 leaves it slightly below May’s trough. Worryingly, the temporary supply-chain disruptions that depressed output in May appear to have eased, indicating that July’s weakness might be more structural.

I’m so glad we have a deal that will bring the confidence fairy to our rescue!

If I Were In The House

August 1, 2011, 11:55 am

I guess I have to be explicit at this point: yes, I would vote no.

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(T)he people who claim that terrible things would immediately happen in the markets also claimed that there would be a big relief rally once a deal was struck. Not so much: the Dow is down 121 right now.

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(T)he idea that a temporary disruption would permanently damage faith in US institutions now seems moot; if you haven’t already lost faith in US institutions, you’re not paying attention.

This guy knows nothing.  It’s only a fucking Nobel Prize in Economics.

Barack Obama has a Peace Prize!  So there.