92% of Precincts Reporting.
A couple items of interest- Bernie Sanders got way more votes than Trump and Hillary Clinton got almost as many. Before the Primary projections of Bernie’s margin were centered around 13 to 14 points (CNN, Real Clear Politics) and even I was somewhat conservative with my estimate of 10 to 15. His final margin is 21.7 points.
Democratic only of course, who cares about Republicans? Besides these tables are hard work and the Republican one is twice as big.
Before you draw any particular conclusion from an individual result, you must first consider the percentage of all responses that result represents- 90% of a 10% universe is not very significant. Next you should consider the magnitude of Sanders’ overall victory, results that are higher or lower than the average will help identify strengths and weaknesses. Still you have to remember that even in areas lower than average, outperforming expectations contributed to the final margin.
For instance- Sanders heavily defeated Clinton among Men, but they represented only 45% of the electorate. He did not exceed his average result among Women, who represent 55% of voters, but he still got an outright victory and beat expectations.
That’s a simple case. You have to treat the more complex ones the same way.
From The New York Times.
|Q/Group||% All Voters||Bernie||Hillary|
|65 and over||17%||44||55|
|Urban, suburban, rural|
|City over 50,000||12%||57||40|
|Small city and rural||40%||63||36|
|Who do you think is honest and trustworthy?|
|Both of them||39%||26||73|
|Neither of them||3%||—||—|
|Who shares your values?|
|Both of them||51%||48||52|
|Neither of them||4%||—||—|
|Which was more important in your vote for president today?|
|Positions on the issues||72%||66||32|
|Leadership or personal qualities||25%||44||54|
|No college degree||40%||67||31|
|$30,000 – $49,999||17%||60||38|
|$50,000 – $99,999||33%||64||35|
|$100,000 – $199,999||28%||55||44|
|$200,000 or more||8%||46||53|
|Replacing current health care system with single taxpayer-funded plan for all Americans|
|How worried are you about a major terrorist attack in the U.S.?|
|Not too/not at all||31%||71||29|
|How worried are you about the direction of the nation’s economy?|
|Not too/not at all||20%||43||57|
|Registered as independent/undeclared|
|Getting ahead financially||16%||53||47|
|Holding steady financially||67%||59||39|
|Falling behind financially||17%||69||28|
|What do you expect for life of the next generation of Americans?|
|Better than life today||25%||61||37|
|Worse than life today||38%||70||29|
|About the same||35%||48||50|
|Issue that matters most|
|Income tax rates|
|Increase for all||10%||—||—|
|Increase only on income over $250,000||78%||59||40|
|Not increase for anyone||11%||—||—|
|Decided whom to support|
|In the last few days||12%||—||—|
|Sometime last week||6%||—||—|
|In the last month||16%||70||29|
|Candidate quality that matters most|
|Can win in November||12%||19||79|
|Cares about people like me||26%||82||17|
|Honest and trustworthy||34%||91||5|
|Has the right experience||26%||15||85|
The New Hampshire exit poll was based on questionnaires completed by primary voters on Tuesday as they left election locations throughout the state.
The poll was conducted by Edison Research of Somerville, N.J. for the National Election Pool which consists of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News.
The results are based on 2,215 Democratic primary voters at 45 randomly selected polling places, interviewed as they were exiting each site.
In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, the results from such polls should differ by no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from what would have been obtained by seeking to interview all voters who participated in each party’s primary in New Hampshire. Results based on smaller sub-groups, such as specific demographic groups or backers of a particular candidate, have a larger potential sampling error. Groups that are too small to be sampled accurately are represented with a dash.
In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of voter opinion on election day, such as reluctance of some voters to take time to complete the questionnaire, may introduce other sources of error into the poll.