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Jan 14 2019

Big Day For Brexit

Tomorrow the British Parliament will finally take a vote on Theresa May’s Brexit Plan. It is all but certain to fail, the biggest question is the magnitude of the failure.

I would vote against it, not because it’s necessarily bad though it’s not a gift to the UK Economy (which it will likely trash almost as much as a No Deal Brexit), but because it makes it probable that May’s Conservative Government will fall and force a General Election.

Jeremy Corbyn has unfortunately not drawn much of a distinction between Tories and Labour on the issue. Other than promising a No Confidence vote after the failure of the plan, his support for a second referendum has been lukewarm at best despite the fact that his own membership is in favor of holding one immediately by a 2 to 1 margin with similar sentiments held almost as strongly by the entire electorate.

Not that a Remain vote is a sure thing, the polling on that is much more evenly divided though Remain seems to be holding a slight edge at the moment.

Still, Corbyn publicly believes he can get a better deal from the EU than May which I consider highly speculative. It could make a difference to approach it from the Left rather than the Right in that there might be some concessions he would be willing to make that the Tories are ideologically opposed to and that might result in addressing some of the Left criticisms of EU membership, but I don’t think they would be particularly significant.

This is mostly due to the EU wanting to punish the UK for leaving as a warning to others who, quite correctly, have concerns about the EU’s Austerity Policy and it’s Autocratic anti-Democratic structure. They have no incentive to negotiate and it would be very hard to generate a new consensus among the 27 nations with individual veto power anyway.

The extent of May’s failure is demonstrated by the fact that the only argument among British observers is whether her Plan loses by more than 200 votes or not. If her defeat is narrow you can envision scenarios like her eeking out a Confidence Vote victory or presiding over an interim custodial Government. About the only thing that Tories agree on is that Labour is a pack of Communist rabble that must be defeated at all costs because…

Well, Communists you know.

Myself? I think Thatcherite Neo Liberal Privatization and looting of the Commons is a proven failure that ought to be tossed on the rubbish heap of History and killed with fire (it’s an Internet meme, not a threat) as soon as possible. Why the British tolerate their monopolistic private Railway System is as much a puzzle to me as why the U.S. doesn’t have one to speak of at all (it’s spotty, inconvenient, and prohibitively expensive with tickets costing 3 to 5 times as much compared to flights to the same destination, of course Airlines are heavily subsidized and Amtrack an unwanted stepchild).

So we shall see what we shall see tomorrow but you should pay attention because it’s a really big deal.