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Jul 03 2020

‘It was Chick-amauga’

Don’t lie to me and say you never watched Bugs Bunny.

Chickamauga was the bloody end of a Union Offensive by Bill Rosencranz into North Georgia in September of 1863, delivered at the hands of Braxton Bragg. It featured the second highest number of casualties to date after Gettysburg.

It was made more shocking because up to that point Rosencranz had been quite successful in outmaneuvering Bragg with Flanking Actions that had driven him from Chattanooga all the way across Eastern Tennessee with few losses.

The first day was indecisive but the second was quite disastrous. Rosencranz made a mistake about his dispositions relative to Bragg and, attempting to correct, exposed a massive hole that Bragg, and the newly arrived James Longstreet, were quick to exploit.

The Union Line crumbled with a Third of the Troops fleeing in a rout, Rosencranz himself rushed back to Chattanooga before the issue was decided. Not a good look, ask Horatio Gates.

The rest of the Troops reorganized under George “The Rock of Chickamauga’ Thomas and withdrew in order but it was a loss, no doubt about it, and they followed Rosencranz back to Chattanooga.

Umm… very interesting, but what does it mean?

The Civil War was by far the most sanguinary conflict in United States History with over 655,000 dead (as is customary, both North and South, Civilians excluded). With a total population of 31,443,322 as of the 1860 Census, that amounts to about 20 of every 1000 people. Today’s equivalent would be roughly 6,600,000.

So, there’s your benchmark for how bad things can get.

U.S. sets record for new coronavirus cases, surpassing 55,000
By Kim Bellware, Siobhán O’Grady, Hamza Shaban, Hannah Knowles, Jacqueline Dupree, Felicia Sonmez, Colby Itkowitz, Steven Goff, and Michael Brice-Saddler, Washington Post
July 2, 2020

The United States reported 55,220 new coronavirus cases Thursday, surpassing Wednesday’s record of 52,789, previously the largest single-day total since the start of the pandemic, according to data collected by The Washington Post.

Florida on Thursday reported 10,109 new cases of the coronavirus, marking a new single-day record for the state, which reported 6,563 cases on Wednesday. There were 68 deaths, for a total of 3,718. It’s the 25th consecutive day that Florida has set a record high in its seven-day rolling average. Georgia, one of the first states to loosen restrictions, joined Florida and several other states in setting single-day records of new cases. Georgia reported 3,472, up from 2,976 on Wednesday.

In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) on Thursday issued a statewide mandate requiring Texans to wear masks in public in any county with 20 or more positive covid-19 cases — a dramatic move that comes as cases in the state continue to climb. On Thursday, Texas reported 7,915 new cases of the coronavirus.

Fauci Says U.S. Could Reach 100,000 Virus Cases a Day as Warnings Grow Darker
By Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Noah Weiland, The New York Times
June 30, 2020

The government’s top infectious disease expert said on Tuesday that the rate of new coronavirus infections could more than double to 100,000 a day if current outbreaks were not contained, warning that the virus’s march across the South and the West “puts the entire country at risk.”

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, offered the grim prediction while testifying on Capitol Hill, telling senators that no region of the country is safe from the virus’s resurgence. The number of new cases in the United States has shot up by 80 percent in the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database, with new hot spots flaring far from the Sun Belt epicenters.

“I can’t make an accurate prediction, but it is going to be very disturbing, I will guarantee you that,” Dr. Fauci said, “because when you have an outbreak in one part of the country, even though in other parts of the country they are doing well, they are vulnerable.”

Ok. One Hundred Thousand a Day is 1 Million every 10 Days so in 3300 Days (a little over 9 Years) every single person in the United States will have become infected.

Das Vadanya Rodina (ironic salute by Russian Strategic Warriors embarking on their suicidal Nuclear Holocaust missions).

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
The New York Times
Updated July 3, 2020

More than 2,758,800 people in the United States have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 128,800 have died, according to a New York Times database.

So how bad is that exactly?

Well, it gives a Fatality Rate of 4.6 per Thousand which, while not as bad as it could be (‘There’s definitely a very slim chance we’ll survive.’), is plenty bad indeed.

It means that Every Day 464 people will die.

Total Fatalities at maximum Rates (there are self limiting factors I’m ignoring for clarity) around 151,800. For comparison there will be 329.040 Traffic Fatalities in the same time period.

50% as many Deaths as Traffic is not exactly a favorable contrast.

Coronavirus has been twice as costly as the Vietnam War (8 Years, 58,177) and worse than The Great War (1 Year 116,516). If not yet at Civil War levels (and not projected to get there by this method) it’s still pretty horrible.

These are simple calculator exercises, I’m not a Doctor and claim no special expertise.