Brexit: How’s That Working Out For You?

The U.S. Senate and House operate under their own arcane sets of Rules that are ratified at the beginning of every Congress (not that they can’t be changed by a simple majority), the British Parliament has customs and procedures. Ours were the basis of Robert’s Rules of Order but as Henry Martyn Robert was primarily interested in non-legislative meetings they’re not identical. In Britain they are codified in a ponderous tome (1097 pages!) called Erskine May and it is, as far as it goes, “official”.

Now the UK doesn’t have a written (meaning organized) Constitution but instead a hodgepodge of Law and Royal proclamations accumulated since the Magna Carta Libertatum in 1215. In 1844 Thomas Erskine May put together his compendium of the mechanics of Parliament which is sometimes followed and sometimes not because the only “real” rule is Majority of the Members of Parliament.

Thus it was not unreasonable for Theresa May to expect that she could get a 3rd (or 4th or 5th) vote on her Brexit Plan that has been crushingly defeated twice.

The political calculation was the impending prospect of a “No Deal” Brexit would scare the Soft Brexit/Remain Members and the threat of a solution that would involve closer ties to the EU would scare the Hard Brexiteers into supporting her.

In Britain they also have a Speaker of the House but mostly they just preside and exercise little or no power. John Bercow (a Tory mind you) is different.

Just as in the United States the Speaker has control of the agenda and on Monday he announced that, because of a 1604 legal precedent, he was not going to allow the Bill to be debated unless it was substantially different (no just re-titling it and slapping on a new date).

There’s a nice explainer by Adam Taylor in the Washington Post.

May has decided she can’t contest the Speaker’s ruling (Majority of Members you know) and has now decided the only alternative (because a solid Majority of Parliament has already voted against a “No Deal” Brexit) is to petition the EU for more time.

I’ll let The New York Times carry on from there.

May Requests Brexit Delay From E.U. as U.K. Government Remains in Crisis
By Stephen Castle, The New York Times
March 20, 2019

In a letter to European Union leaders, Mrs. May asked for an extension to the Article 50 negotiating process until June 30, raising the prospect that Britain could still suffer a disorderly departure in the summer. Reflecting that possibility, the British pound dropped on the news.

The prospect of any delay to Brexit, as Britain’s departure from the bloc is known, is a broad and humiliating reversal for Mrs. May. It is sure to infuriate many members of her Conservative Party, most of whom support leaving the European Union with no deal if necessary, and to reaffirm the cynicism, rampant among many of the 17.4 million Britons who voted to leave, that the elites in London would never let them have their way.

Her decision was sharply criticized by the opposition Labour Party and by some of her own lawmakers.

“Theresa May is desperate once again to impose a binary choice between her deal and no deal despite Parliament clearly ruling out both of those options last week,” the shadow secretary for Brexit, Keir Starmer, said in a statement. “What the government should be doing is showing real leadership, making good on their commitment to break the deadlock and secure an extension with a genuine purpose.”

Limiting the request to a short delay is the latest in a series of political gyrations from Mrs. May. Last week she said that, if Parliament failed to vote swiftly for her plans — which have been rejected twice — then Britain would face a lengthy delay and have to take part in European elections in May.

It was that prospect that triggered a rebellion from Brexit supporters in her cabinet on Tuesday — and reports of resignation threats — that appear to have prompted another retreat. “As prime minister, I am not prepared to delay Brexit any further than 30 June,” Mrs. May told lawmakers, prompting some speculation that she might resign if Parliament tried to force a longer extension.

A short delay will keep alive hopes among hard-line Brexit supporters in Parliament, who want to leave without any agreement, and they will be under little pressure now to approve Mrs. May’s deal.

Though the political paralysis over Brexit is in Parliament, the decision on whether to grant the delay lies with the European Union, whose leaders had been expected to agree to some sort of extra time when they gather in Brussels on Thursday. But that could now be in doubt.

Speaking to the German radio station Deutschlandfunk on Wednesday, Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, said that any decision by the European Union might have to be postponed until the end of next week, after fresh votes in Parliament. That could be on the eve of Britain’s departure, scheduled for March 29.

An extension could come with conditions, and European leaders stressed on Tuesday that they want to see some form of strategy in place to resolve the crisis. They worry that three months is not sufficient for Mrs. May to achieve success, and that she will be back to request another delay in the summer. That would be hard for them to accommodate for legal reasons, because Britain would not have participated in European elections.

Mrs. May, nothing if not stubborn, is not giving up on her unpopular blueprint for Brexit. Indeed, she excels at buying more time, and a delay would give her at least a couple of more weeks to resolve the crisis.

Like most everything else with Brexit, the process of requesting and granting an extension is no simple matter, which helps explain why it created such bitter divisions in the cabinet on Tuesday.

For legal reasons, a delay beyond the end of June would be likely to require Britain to participate in elections to the next European Parliament, making a mockery of British plans to leave the bloc.

But as another legal matter, a decision on whether to stage the elections — and effectively to go for a longer delay — must be made during the second week of April. The Brexiteers want to use the upcoming European elections as a sort of backstop, to borrow a phrase, to force Britain to leave, since it would be legally problematic to remain in the bloc without representatives in the European Parliament.

If a long delay would be awkward for Britain, it is not straightforward for the European Union either. It would mean the British enjoy the full rights of membership despite their efforts to leave the club

In that event, European officials are concerned that Britain might try to use its power to paralyze the bloc’s other business as leverage to extract more concessions on its exit deal.

You know, just the kind of thing the 1604 rule was meant to prevent. From the Post

In his statement, Bercow suggested there had been past instances of the speaker of the House of Commons applying this rule, “notably in 1864, 1870, 1882, 1891 and 1912.” However, he said the initial precedent dated to April 2, 1604, when it was put into practice by Parliament during the speakership of Sir Edward Phelips.

The context for this rule is interesting. This was a complicated time in British political history — King James VI of Scotland had become James I of England and Ireland with the union of the Scottish and English crowns the year earlier. Josh Chafetz, a professor at Cornell Law School who has written about this moment in legal history, says the English Parliament was suspicious of the newly powerful Scottish royal and sought to codify its powers.

Phelips was viewed as close to the monarchy, Chafetz wrote on Twitter, so the 1604 decision “both forestalls the sort of dilatory tactics that keep the House from turning to other business and also makes it harder for the Crown to keep bullying members until they vote the way that it wants.”

The next year, incidentally, a group of dissident Catholics would try to blow up Parliament and kill James. The infamous Gunpowder Plot failed, and the perpetrators who survived, including Guy Fawkes, were sentenced to be hanged, drawn and quartered. Phelips was involved in the legal case against the plotters.

Remember, remember the fifth of November
The gunpowder treason and plot.
I see no reason why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.

What will happen? As Atrios puts it-

From what I can tell from skimming the news… May wants to delay until June 30. The EU is saying “suck it, no” you only get until May 23. Macron is making noises about no delay without some more meaningful purpose behind it. May either will or won’t resign if she does not get her way on some unspecified thing.

Brexitpalooza indeed.

Cartnoon

The Big Stink

Stay Just A Little Bit Longer

So much for that “period of unemployment:”

A Justice Department official declined to comment on whether the delay in Rosenstein’s departure means Mueller is still not ready to deliver his report.

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will stay at the Justice Department “a little longer,” according to a senior department official.

Rosenstein had previously said he would leave in mid-March, noting during a public appearance on March 7 that it would be one of his final speeches.

Rosenstein recently discussed his upcoming planned departure with Attorney General William Barr, after which it was decided that he would stay on a little longer, the official said.

The departure of Rosenstein, who appointed special counsel Robert Mueller in 2017 and oversaw his Russia investigation until Barr was confirmed as attorney general earlier this year, was widely thought to be tied to the completion of Mueller’s report. Many speculated Rosenstein would stay on until Mueller completed his investigation and delivered a report on his findings to Barr.

The Breakfast Club (Reinforcement)

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

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This Day in History

American and British forces invade Iraq; U.S. soldiers charged in Abu Ghraib scandal; France’s Napoleon regains power; ‘Uncle Tom’s Cabin’; Sarin attack hits Tokyo subway; John Lennon marries Yoko Ono.

Breakfast Tunes

Something to Think about over Coffee Prozac

The way positive reinforcement is carried out is more important than the amount.

B. F. Skinner

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NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament 2019: Play Ins Day 1

Sigh. It’s that time of year we I get to work really hard for a very long time. The Tables and Links don’t look like much, but some of the Links are hard to find and the Table formatting is technically difficult and requires you to do the same boring repetitive task over and over and over again…

Perfectly.

Otherwise it looks like crap. The Links to the Schools go to their Basketball fan pages (Official, not some 3rd party), the Links to the Records go to their Schedule and Results so you can make your own personal judgment about the strength of the Team.

As always (because I’m a much bigger fan of Women’s Basketball than the Men’s game) I’ll be covering all 130 Games, both Ladies’ and Gents’. Given that most Teams don’t play more than 35 Games a year that’s about 3.7 years of Basketball in 3 weeks and at the end I am thoroughly sick of it and ready for the off season.

Well, for about a month or two.

I no longer attempt to do In-Game Updates unless it’s a Team I’m particularly interested in. It’s simply impossible in the Round of 64 and the Regional Quarterfinals (especially when both the Women and Men are playing on the same day), and in any event I find that it detracts from my enjoyment. When I do it will likely be limited to periodic scores.

Today and Tomorrow are the Play Ins, then we start in earnest. Thursday/Friday Round of 64, Saturday/Sunday Regional Quarterfinals. How I divide the schedule depends on when the Tournament’s “comfort” breaks are.

Enjoy some March Madness!
 

Time Network Seed School Record Seed School Record Region
6:40 pm truTV 16 Prairie View A&M 22 – 12 16 Fairleigh D’son 20 – 13 West
9:10 pm truTV 11 Belmont 26 – 5 11 Temple 23 – 9 East

Trump’s Financial Crimes Are Catching Up To Him

The news of the special councel’s office taking an interest in his dealings with Deutsche Bank may have been the reason for Trump’s weekend twitter tantrum:

As President Trump delivered his inaugural address in 2017, a slight woman with feathered gray hair sat listening, bundled in a hooded white parka in a fenced-off V.I.P. section. Her name was Rosemary T. Vrablic. She was a managing director at Deutsche Bank and one of the reasons Mr. Trump had just taken the oath of office.

It was a moment of celebration — and a moment of worry for Ms. Vrablic’s employer.

Mr. Trump and Deutsche Bank were deeply entwined, their symbiotic bond born of necessity and ambition on both sides: a real estate mogul made toxic by polarizing rhetoric and a pattern of defaults, and a bank with intractable financial problems and a history of misconduct.

The relationship had paid off. Mr. Trump used loans from Deutsche Bank to finance skyscrapers and other high-end properties, and repeatedly cited his relationship with the bank to deflect political attacks on his business acumen. Deutsche Bank used Mr. Trump’s projects to build its investment-banking business, reaped fees from the assets he put in its custody and leveraged his celebrity to lure clients.

Then Mr. Trump won the 2016 election, and the German bank shifted into damage-control mode, bracing for an onslaught of public scrutiny, according to several people involved in the internal response.

In the weeks before Ms. Vrablic attended his swearing-in, the bank commissioned reports to figure out how it had gotten in so deep with Mr. Trump. It issued an unusual edict to its Wall Street employees: Do not publicly utter the word “Trump.”

More than two years later, Mr. Trump’s financial ties with Deutsche Bank are the subject of investigations by two congressional committees and the New York attorney general. Investigators hope to use Deutsche Bank as a window into Mr. Trump’s personal and business finances.

Deutsche Bank officials have quietly argued to regulators, lawmakers and journalists that Mr. Trump was not a priority for the bank or its senior leaders and that the lending was the work of a single, obscure division. But interviews with more than 20 current and former Deutsche Bank executives and board members, most of them with direct knowledge of the Trump relationship, contradict the bank’s narrative.

Over nearly two decades, Deutsche Bank’s leaders repeatedly saw red flags surrounding Mr. Trump. There was a disastrous bond sale, a promised loan that relied on a banker’s forged signature, wild exaggerations of Mr. Trump’s wealth, even a claim of an act of God.

But Deutsche Bank had a ravenous appetite for risk and limited concern about its clients’ reputations. Time after time, with the support of two different chief executives, the bank handed money — a total of well over $2 billion — to a man whom nearly all other banks had deemed untouchable.

Kerrie McHugh, a Deutsche Bank spokeswoman, said: “We remain committed to cooperating with authorized investigations.”

Rachel Maddow hammered Donald Trump on Monday with a list of his shady financial dealings with Deutsche Bank.

Citing the New York Times report, the MSNBC host said Trump “materially misrepresented his wealth and his assets and his ability to repay” loans, but Deutsche Bank continued to give him money anyway.

Pondering the Pundits

Pondering the Pundits” is an Open Thread. It is a selection of editorials and opinions from> around the news medium and the internet blogs. The intent is to provide a forum for your reactions and opinions, not just to the opinions presented, but to what ever you find important.

Thanks to ek hornbeck, click on the link and you can access all the past “Pondering the Pundits”.

Follow us on Twitter @StarsHollowGzt

Paul Krugman: Getting Real About Rural America

Things clump together; the periphery cannot hold.

As you read this, Democratic presidential hopefuls are crisscrossing Iowa, trying to assure farmers that they share their concerns. Commentators are publishing opinion pieces about how Democrats can win back rural voters. Think tanks are issuing manifestoes about reviving heartland economies.

There’s nothing wrong with discussing these issues. Rural lives matter — we’re all Americans, and deserve to share in the nation’s wealth. Rural votes matter even more; like it or not, our political system gives hugely disproportionate weight to less populous states, which are also generally states with relatively rural populations.

But it’s also important to get real. There are powerful forces behind the relative and in some cases absolute economic decline of rural America — and the truth is that nobody knows how to reverse those forces.

Put it this way: Many of the problems facing America have easy technical solutions; all we lack is the political will. Every other advanced country provides universal health care. Affordable child care is within easy reach. Rebuilding our fraying infrastructure would be expensive, but we can afford it — and it might well pay for itself.

But reviving declining regions is really hard. Many countries have tried, but it’s difficult to find any convincing success stories.

Suzanne Moore: Jacinda Ardern is showing the world what real leadership is: sympathy, love and integrity

Out of the horror inflicted by those who cannot accept the world as it is, comes a vision of a better world. It comes from above and it comes from below. It comes from ordinary people. Supermarkets in Wellington suburbs have sold out of flowers, tough old football coaches are talking about love and, most powerful of all, there are the stories of the Christchurch shooting survivors themselves. Those who risked – and lost – their lives to save their fellow worshippers or – astonishingly – found it in their hearts to forgive the gunman.

Then there is this 38-year-old woman: the prime minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern. We have watched as she shows the world what real leadership is. Jacinda–mania had died down since 2017, when she became the country’s youngest prime minister. She gave birth in office, taking her baby to the United Nations general assembly meeting. She became something of a celebrity, appearing on US chatshows. But was there any substance to her? That question is asked of all women leaders. What is underneath? Where is the steel?

Now, in the most horrific of circumstances, we have seen the steel. We have seen the qualities that define leadership in such a way that it is clear she is a lioness and that to call so many of our current leaders donkeys is a disservice to hardworking donkeys the world over.

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*ucker Carlson

First of all, it stands for “T”.

Second of all, my boy Cody Johnston is much more liberal with the censor bleep (on YouTube of all places) than John Oliver is on HBO (Was that just yesterday? It seems a lifetime. Ehh, Blog Years).

Since this is about Carlson I can hardly recommend it as “Safe for Work”, but this is a site for adults and we talk about adult things here.

Cartnoon

That’s HED-ley

I want rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists.

The Breakfast Club (Misirlou)

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

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This Day in History

President Abraham Lincoln delivers Gettysburg Address; Egypt’s Anwar Sadat becomes first Arab leader to visit Israel; Ford halts Edsel production; Bandleader Tommy Dorsey and actress Jodie Foster born.

Breakfast Tunes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Dale

Something to Think about over Coffee Prozac

The road to hell is paved with works-in-progress.

Philip Roth

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