Tag: Nouriel Roubini

US stocks continue to dip and oil fell to below the $100 mark as the Europeans are balking at austerity only budgets that have exacerbated the recession. Nobel prize winning economist, Nuriel  Roubini weighed in on the crisis in Spain and Greece.

“Greece is going to be the first country that’s going to restructure and exit,” he said. “Others will leave also.”

“By the end of the year Spain is going to lose market access,” Roubini said in a subsequent CNBC interview. “They’re going to require a bailout. That will keep them out of the markets for a year or two. That’s not going to work out – then maybe two years down the line then you have a restructuring of the debt…And eventually even Spain could exit the euro zone-but it’s not something that’s going to happen in 12 months.”

Roubini also predicted that Spain economic situation was similar to Greece and Portugal and would require a bail out but with caveats:

And yet despite the clear signs of failure in the existing bailout countries, the EU looks set to pursue an unchanged plan in Spain. But the crucial difference between Spain and the bailout countries is size. If things go wrong in Greece, Portugal and Ireland, a second bailout is affordable. But there can only be one roll of the dice for a country as large as Spain.

A bailout package would buy some time for Spain, but time will only help if it is used to generate economic growth. By making private claims on the sovereign junior to the claims of the troika (European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) even a bailout risks reducing the chances of it regaining market access. Moreover, with economic indicators showing Spain sinking further into recession, a turnround in the country’s economic performance would require a significant shift in policy: monetary easing by the ECB, a weaker euro, fiscal stimulus in the core, less front-loaded austerity in the periphery, more international firewalls and debt mutualisation.

Bloomberg TV’s Margaret Brennan speaks to Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC. Roubini tells Brennan, “we’re going into a recession based on my numbers” and that the Federal Reserve and other authorities no longer have the ability to provide emergency support.

There seems to a consensus here. Just last week Nobel Prize winning Economist Joseph Stiglitz told Bloomberg the same thing:

“The unemployment situation in the U.S. is very severe and very probably going to get worse,” Stiglitz told reporters today at a conference in Lindau, Germany. “There’s a very high probability we’ll go into double dip.”

snip

Stiglitz said calls by policy makers to engage in deficit- cutting austerity measures were heading in “exactly the wrong direction.”

“The most important way to address the deficit is to get America back to work, to get the economy back to full employment,” Stiglitz said at an annual gathering of Nobel Prize-winning economists. “Austerity is going to get us predictably into trouble. Spend the money on investments, and those investments will lead to higher growth.”

Two other points were made about the current economic crisis by Paul Krugman. One is that the economy has not really recovered and that the Federal Reserve needs to take firmer action to stimulate job growth. The non-recovery is best illustrated with this chart provided by Krugman:

Krugman’s second point is about debt, federal and personal, that there has not been an explosion in debt over the past few years

There have been hints about President Obama’s jobs plan that he will present to a joint session of Congress Thursday night but it needs to be big and bold but that’s doubtful with this president.

Dr. Nouriel Roubini, the chairman and co-founder of Roubini Global Economics and professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, joined Rachel Maddow for a two part interview on the economic state of the US economy. What he had to say was not encouraging. The transcripts to both segments are below the fold.

The 3rd segment was on-line only. It was diaried here: Dr. Doom: Nothing Has Changed

This is the man that Obama needs to put on speed dial.

Global Economy Will Suffer More Financial Crises in Next 10 Years: Roubini

The global economy will suffer a “couple of financial crises over the next 10 years” as financial reforms are not going in the right direction and not enough is being done, warned Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics.

“Nothing has changed fundamentally. When the regulatory reform was passed by the U.S. Congress, my view is too little, too late,” Roubini told CNBC Monday on the sidelines of the World Capital Markets Symposium in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Roubini said even if the world economy doesn’t slip into a double-dip, the effects will still be felt.

“We are already in a situation which is going to feel like a recession, (even) if we are not in one,” he said.

“And if the economic data surprise on the down side, we are going to have a correction of the stock markets, widening of credit spreads, increased volatility, increase risk aversion, then it leads to a shock for the real economy.”