Tag: Le Tour

Jul 21 2011

Le Tour- Stage 18

Pinerolo to Galibier Serre-Chevalier 125 miles

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

The story of yesterday is the group that finished 4:26 back- Frank Schleck, Cunego, Sanchez, Evans, Contador, and Andy Schleck, and the group that finished 4:53 back- Voeckler and Basso.

Contador looked to put on a move in the final descent into Pinerolo and was apparently succeeding when away from the camera and commentary the rest of the major contenders snuck up to be right there at the finish.

Voeckler would have been right there also except that pressing a little too hard he had to take an escape road off into a car park (his second slide off) and lost another 27 Seconds.

A thrilling finish, but not one that shakes up the standings-

Rank Name Team ET delta
1 Thomas Voeckler Europcar 73h 23′ 49″
2 Cadel Evans BMC 73h 25′ 07″ + 01′ 18″
3 Frank Schleck Leopard Trek 73h 25′ 11″ + 01′ 22″
4 Andy Schleck Leopard Trek 73h 26′ 25″ + 02′ 36″
5 Samuel Sanchez Euskaltel 73h 26′ 48″ + 02′ 59″
6 Alberto Contador Saxo Bank 73h 27′ 04″ + 03′ 15″
7 Damiano Cunego Lampre 73h 27′ 23″ + 03′ 34″
8 Ivan Basso Cannondale 73h 27′ 38″ + 03′ 49″
9 Tom Danielson Garmin 73h 29′ 53″ + 06′ 04″
10 Rigoberto Uran Sky 73h 31′ 25″ + 07′ 36″

My analysis is that it’s another missed opportunity for Contador and there aren’t too many of them left- today and tomorrow in the High Mountains and the Individual Time Trial on Saturday.  BruceMcF thinks there could be an attempt by the sprinters to put the Mad Manx out on time elimination.

Today’s Stage has only 3 climbs but they’re all unclassified with the sprint checkpoint before any of the tough hills.  The finish is uphill after the longest climb (but not steepest) of the day so a repeat of yesterday’s bunch finish is unlikely.  This is the centenary of the Galabier on the Tour and the highest finish ever.

Vs. starts it’s coverage at an early (unless you were already up at 5 am to watch the final landing of the Space Shuttle) 7 am so it’s possible we might see the points checkpoint finish.

Jul 20 2011

Le Tour- Stage 17

Gap to Pinerolo 112 miles

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

The sporting press seems evenly divided over whether Contador or Evans benefitted the most from yesterday’s results.  At the very least it was a psychological boost to Contador’s chances as he aggressively attacked at least 4 times and was suddenly a part of the conversation after 2 weeks.

Looking at the times the results are not so clear.  There’s no doubt that Andy Schleck was hurt by his cautious descent into Gap, giving up 1:06, and Basso nearly as badly, but riders like Frank Schleck, Cunego, and Voeckler gave up just 18 Seconds and Evans gained 3.

Hushovd’s Stage win was also unexpected, and puts him in 4th place of the points competition some 84 behind the Mad Manx and 65 ahead of Greipel in 5th.  BruceMcF’s analysis of yesterday’s competition here.

In any event your adjusted overall times look like this today-

Rank Name Team ET delta
1 Thomas Voeckler Europcar 69h 00′ 56″
2 Cadel Evans BMC 69h 02′ 41″ + 01′ 45″
3 Frank Schleck Leopard Trek 69h 02′ 45″ + 01′ 49″
4 Andy Schleck Leopard Trek 69h 03′ 59″ + 03′ 03″
5 Samuel Sanchez Euskaltel 69h 04′ 22″ + 03′ 26″
6 Alberto Contador Saxo Bank 69h 04′ 38″ + 03′ 42″
7 Ivan Basso Cannondale 69h 04′ 45″ + 03′ 49″
8 Damiano Cunego Lampre 69h 04′ 57″ + 04′ 01″
9 Tom Danielson Garmin 69h 07′ 00″ + 06′ 04″
10 Rigoberto Uran Sky 69h 08′ 51″ + 07′ 55″

Today’s Stage has a category 3 climb before the sprint checkpoint and overall 2 category 3s, 2 category 2s, and a category 1.  The descent from Sestrieres is about 29 miles which is expected to be long enough to bunch the field before the final climb and descent into Pinerolo.  Since it’s not considered particularly difficult  the final section is thought by some analysists to favor Evans.

Vs. joins the race in progress at the relatively sane hour of 8 am.

Jul 19 2011

Le Tour- Stage 16

Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux to Gap 101 miles

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

Today’s Stage is pretty much steadily up hill with a dip after the feeding station and a full fledged descent at the finish following the Col de Manse, so theoretically at least there could be huge deltas as back markers struggle up hill and front runners zoom down.

There’s also the crash factor that could come into play especially if the winds are tricky or the weather is bad.

After consideration I have no reason to change yesterday’s assessment that if you’re not in the top ten now it’s extremely unlikely you’ll get there barring a catastrophic breakdown by a lot of teams and riders.  The gap between 10th and 11th is a full 1:37 and it’s 8:20 to Voeckler.

Whether he can hang on is, I think, the question of the day.  He’s not known as a climber though he did pretty good in the Pyrenees so this is probably the last chance for him to put some seconds in the bank on a Stage suited to his style.

Vs. will join the race in progress at 8 am.

Jul 18 2011

Le Tour- Rest Day 2

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

Had a chance to chat with Armando last night which I’ve always found very enjoyable despite others having a different experience.  Nobody is obligated to treat you any particular way on the Internet and if you’re going to expose yourself you just have to get used to that.

His analysis echos the consensus view expressed here which if I might be allowed to summarize is that Contador has missed his best opportunity for a victory and barring a miraculous comeback in the Alps is no longer a contender.

He’s a little more skeptical of the Schleck brothers’ prospects than I am, perhaps because of their reputation as poor time trialers, and likes Cadel Evan’s chances.  Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy, Oy, Oy.

I personally think that anyone in the top 8 (well, except for Contador) is close enough to strike and 2 minutes being what it is we could even see a Frenchman (gasp), albeit one with an Alsatian name, cruising down the Champs Elysees in yellow in a little less than a week.

The standings as of the second (and last) Rest Day-

Rank Name Team ET delta
1 Thomas Voeckler Europcar 65h 24′ 34″
2 Frank Schleck Leopard Trek 65h 26′ 23″ + 01′ 49″
3 Cadel Evans BMC 65h 26′ 40″ + 02′ 06″
4 Andy Schleck Leopard Trek 65h 26′ 49″ + 02′ 15″
5 Ivan Basso Cannondale 65h 27′ 50″ + 03′ 16″
6 Samuel Sanchez Euskaltel 65h 28′ 18″ + 03′ 44″
7 Alberto Contador Saxo Bank 65h 28′ 34″ + 04′ 00″
8 Damiano Cunego Lampre 65h 28′ 35″ + 04′ 01″
9 Tom Danielson Garmin 65h 30′ 20″ + 05′ 46″
10 Kevin De Weert Quick Step 65h 30′ 52″ + 06′ 18″

What type of race do we have remaining?  Mountains.  Medium tomorrow and Alps for the next 3 days.  Then the Individual Time Trial that is supposed to be the Schleck’s Achilles’ Heel.  Finally the big parade to the Champs which is customarily contended only by the sprinters while the GC also rans accept their fate with dignity.

So there’s not much race left.

I’m hoping the Vs. coverage at 8 am has a little more recap and a little less yesterday than the first Rest Day did.  Limoux to Montpellier was instructive in the points competition but not so much for the overall.  If you miss it there are plenty of repeats at 11:30 am, 3 pm, 8 pm, and midnight.

Jul 17 2011

Le Tour- Stage 15

Limoux to Montpellier 120 miles.

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

So Alberto gives up another 2 Seconds to Andy.  No big deal right?  He’ll make it up in the Time Trial.

Time ticks on filled with wouldas, shouldas, and couldas.

This was Contador’s bread and butter on his home court, there is no reason to expect it gets any better.  Who are the best of the rest?

Smart money is on the two Schlecks even though they’re not the trialers Alberto is reputed to be.  Cadel Evans- Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy, Oy, Oy!  Basso.  Sammy Sanchez if you simply must root for a Spaniard (you Alonso fans know who you are).  Cunego is not too far behind.

But pretty much everyone else is and though the Alps are not very far away it’s the same legs as the Pyrenees.

A person who could surprise is Voeckler, he is after all actually wearing the maillot jaune and did much better than expected in the High Mountains.  He’s 1:40 clear of the competition and it could be a magical year for the Frenchman even though fairytales are usually found in the fiction section.

Today’s Stage is the last flat before Paris with just one piddly category 4 so you can expect a sprinter show.  The checkpoint is right before the finish and I expect that someone will gun for the double.

Tomorrow is the second rest day, but I’ll be posting on the results and setup for the Alps.  At 2:45 ET the U.S. Women’s Football Team will be competing for the World Cup against Japan on ESPN and unless some kind and more knowledgeable person posts first I’ll be covering that later.

Vs. joins in progress at 8 am.

Jul 16 2011

Le Tour- Stage 14

Saint-Gaudens to Plateau de Beille 105 miles

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

Our last day in the Pyrenees and the last chance for some riders to make a statement.

Not that I’m expecting for Contador to pack it in, just that there are those who will look ahead to the Alps and decide to spare themselves.  We had 4 withdrawals yesterday including Kloden of Radio Shack.

Speaking of surprises, I’m not sure who would have predicted a Hushovd Stage win and Gilbert finished unexpectedly high.  There was a huge group of 54 that tied for twelfth with another 30 riders 15 Seconds behind so you might argue the deltas don’t make a difference.

Today’s Stage is all up and down with a category 3, two category 2s, two category 1s and we finish on an unclassified (though the last 100 yards is pretty flat).

After this we have a flat day (last one except the Champs Elysees finish) and then there is no rest for the wicked though there is for the riders before we attack the Alps and finish with the Individual Time Trial and parade.

Too early coverage on Vs. starts at 6:30 am.

Jul 15 2011

Le Tour- Stage 13

Pau to Lourdes 95 miles

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

Yesterday’s first Stage in the Pyrenees was not as dominant a day for Contador as might have been predicted on paper.  He was awfully lonely at the finish and gave up time to his main rivals in front of the home crowd.

Now 30 Seconds is not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, a margin like that over a single rival can be easily made up by a bit of bad luck like a flat, but the truth is that Saxo Bank looked totally feckless in the face of a strong Leopard Trek effort from the first serious climb.

Contador’s problem is that it’s not just the :30 and it’s not just one rider he has to beat.

In the General Classification the standings look like this after the first High Mountain Stage-

Rank Name Team ET delta
1 Thomas Voeckler Europcar 51h 54′ 44″
2 Frank Schleck Leopard Trek 51h 56′ 33″ + 01′ 49″
3 Cadel Evans BMC 51h 56′ 50″ + 02′ 06″
4 Andy Schleck Leopard Trek 51h 57′ 01″ + 02′ 17″
5 Ivan Basso Cannondale 51h 58′ 00″ + 03′ 16″
6 Damiano Cunego Lampre 51h 58′ 06″ + 03′ 22″
7 Alberto Contador Saxo Bank 51h 58′ 44″ + 04′ 00″
8 Samuel Sanchez Euskaltel 51h 58′ 55″ + 04′ 11″
9 Tom Danielson Garmin 51h 59′ 19″ + 04′ 35″
10 Nicolas Roche AG2R 51h 59′ 41″ + 04′ 57″

Don’t be deceived by that even 4 Minutes, while it was a great thing for France to have a Frenchman lead Le Tour de France on Bastille Day, Voeckler is not expected to retain the maillot jaune past Saturday if he can hang onto it that long.

The people to watch are the two Schlecks, Evans, and Basso.  Sammy Sanchez is only 11 Seconds behind and could sneak up.

This Stage ramps up with a Category 3 and a category 4 climb before the Sprint checkpoint and then heads for the unclassified Col d’Aubisque and steeply down to the finish.  I think team management is going to be a real issue because it will be very difficult to stick together and help your contenders over the Col and after that a serious gap could develop as the back markers struggle up and the leaders zoom to the finish.

Coverage on Vs. starts at 8 am.

Jul 14 2011

Le Tour- Stage 12

Cugnaux to Luz-Ardiden 132 miles

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

Our first High Mountains.  Lots of uphill, the sprint checkpoint and then 3 climbs- Hourquette d’Ancizan (category 1), Col du Tormalet (unclassified), and the finish at Luz-Ardiden (also unclassified).

The first is actually the steepest, but they range from 7.5% to 7.3% grades so they’re all pretty steep.

Contador will be looking to make a statement since he has a 3 day opportunity to put this away.  He starts out about 1:30 behind his competition.

Yesterday the Mad Manx took over the points competition with Gilbert and Rojas close behind and Greipel and Hushovd slightly farther back.  They’ll contest the intermediate checkpoint points but you have to expect the Stage winner to be a climber.

However there are always surprises.

Surprise early coverage on Vs. starts at 6 am!

Jul 13 2011

Le Tour- Stage 11

Blaye-les-Mines to Lavaur 105 miles

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

The 11th Stage is the halfway mark time wise with 10 race days remaining after today including the Individual Time Trial and the Champs Elysees parade on the penultimate and final days.

This Stage is flatter than yesterday with only one category 4 and one category 3 climb.  It’s the last flat Stage until after the Pyrenees and 1 of 3 (including the Champs Elysees at the very end of Le Tour) left at all.

So you can expect the sprinters to put on a show.

Supposedly the Mad Manx is all pissed that former team mate Greipel beat him out by a wheel to score his first Stage victory ever yesterday (as opposed to Cavendish’s 17), but were I him I’d be far more concerned that I was 64 points behind Gilbert in the points competition.  Not that you can’t make up a lot of ground with a 45 point Stage victory, just that there aren’t a lot of opportunities left that suit his style.

Our first High Mountains start tomorrow and I’m not sure if despite all his bad luck Contador can be stopped.  He is 4:07 behind the leader Voeckler but Voeckler isn’t considered a marquee climber and Contador is reputed to be the best in the world.  The deltas to top contenders like Evans and the Schlecks are less than half that and margins in the mountains tend to magnify.

And he’s the home town favorite in the Pyrenees so it’s like Scuderia Marlboro UPC at Monza.

Despite their woes (3 riders down, Horner out, and Leipheimer mired in 36th) Radio Shack is a respectable 3rd in the team competition, only 1:02 behind Europcar and a mere 30 Seconds behind Leopard Trek.

So if there is going to be change it will be happening soon and then there are always surprises.

Coverage on Vs. starts at 8 am.

Jul 12 2011

Le Tour- Stage 10

Aurillac to Carmaux 99 miles.

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

Doping!

No not Contador, though this is a great example of what happens to a ‘normal’ rider.  Alexandr Kolobnev of Katusha had a urine sample taken after Stage 5 test positive for Hydrochlorothiazide, a diurectic sometimes used to mask other drugs (though not performance enhancing in and of itself).

Since the news was released yesterday, a mere 4 days after the sample, Kolobnev has withdrawn/was booted (accounts disagree) from Le Tour and fired from his team (or not yet, accounts disagree) and is facing a $3 million fine.  Oh, and police tossed his hotel room.

I invite you to compare and contrast.

Today’s Stage has what are called ‘rolling hills’ with 2 category 4 and 2 category 3 climbs.  The sprint checkpoint is pretty early and will happen just before or soon after we join the race.

Hoogerland and Flecha are still with us so far but I’ll note the withdrawal list doesn’t reflect Kolobnev at the moment so perhaps the true toll of Sunday is not yet reflected.  Of course standings haven’t changed since yesterday.

Today’s coverage starts at 8 am.

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