Jul 18 2011

Le Tour- Rest Day 2

Le.  Tour.  De.  France.

Had a chance to chat with Armando last night which I’ve always found very enjoyable despite others having a different experience.  Nobody is obligated to treat you any particular way on the Internet and if you’re going to expose yourself you just have to get used to that.

His analysis echos the consensus view expressed here which if I might be allowed to summarize is that Contador has missed his best opportunity for a victory and barring a miraculous comeback in the Alps is no longer a contender.

He’s a little more skeptical of the Schleck brothers’ prospects than I am, perhaps because of their reputation as poor time trialers, and likes Cadel Evan’s chances.  Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy, Oy, Oy.

I personally think that anyone in the top 8 (well, except for Contador) is close enough to strike and 2 minutes being what it is we could even see a Frenchman (gasp), albeit one with an Alsatian name, cruising down the Champs Elysees in yellow in a little less than a week.

The standings as of the second (and last) Rest Day-

Rank Name Team ET delta
1 Thomas Voeckler Europcar 65h 24′ 34″
2 Frank Schleck Leopard Trek 65h 26′ 23″ + 01′ 49″
3 Cadel Evans BMC 65h 26′ 40″ + 02′ 06″
4 Andy Schleck Leopard Trek 65h 26′ 49″ + 02′ 15″
5 Ivan Basso Cannondale 65h 27′ 50″ + 03′ 16″
6 Samuel Sanchez Euskaltel 65h 28′ 18″ + 03′ 44″
7 Alberto Contador Saxo Bank 65h 28′ 34″ + 04′ 00″
8 Damiano Cunego Lampre 65h 28′ 35″ + 04′ 01″
9 Tom Danielson Garmin 65h 30′ 20″ + 05′ 46″
10 Kevin De Weert Quick Step 65h 30′ 52″ + 06′ 18″

What type of race do we have remaining?  Mountains.  Medium tomorrow and Alps for the next 3 days.  Then the Individual Time Trial that is supposed to be the Schleck’s Achilles’ Heel.  Finally the big parade to the Champs which is customarily contended only by the sprinters while the GC also rans accept their fate with dignity.

So there’s not much race left.

I’m hoping the Vs. coverage at 8 am has a little more recap and a little less yesterday than the first Rest Day did.  Limoux to Montpellier was instructive in the points competition but not so much for the overall.  If you miss it there are plenty of repeats at 11:30 am, 3 pm, 8 pm, and midnight.

2 comments

    • on 07/18/2011 at 14:09
      Author
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    • on 07/18/2011 at 16:46
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    … we have half the mountain stages, half the mountain top finishes, and half the time trials … so we are about halfway as far as the GC goes. And halfway as far as the King of the Mountain, Team, and Young Rider competitions go, as well.

    As far as the revamped Green Jersey competition, where they changed the format to favor the pure bunch sprinters (even as they set a course to favor the “puncheurs“), its all over bar the shouting at Mark Cavandish to get over the mountains. The only way Mark gives up the Green at this point is if Mark is eliminated in the Alps on time … not an abstract possibility, since he was dropped by the Gruppetto (the “autobus”) in the third Pyrenees mountain stage and two of his team mates had to drop back and run a two man time trial to bring him back into the autobus. He finished under two minutes from elimination, so if he had not rejoined the autobus, he would have been eliminated.

    Interestingly, someone has done an analysis of what the Green Jersey points would have been under the old rules ~ and almost all of the intermediate sprint points would have been neutralized by the breakaways under the old rules ~ and JJ Rojas would be in Green with Cavandish challenging in second, having taken second over from PhilGil with his last finish.

    One might almost suggest that they need a Blue “finishers” jersey competition if they have turned the Green Jersey into a bunch sprinters competition: adopt the current intermediate stage points for all stages, and you have a competition that the punchers can aim at.

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