Tag: Formula One 2012

F1 2012: Suzuka

When last we chatted about Hamilton’s prospects I was convinced he’d stay at McLaren and Mercedes wasn’t even on the chart.  Why?  Because they have a slow car, arguably 5th slowest out of 12 and some of the Sauber and Force India fans would contend lower than that.

What Mercedes does have is Ross Brawn (who also snagged Schumacher) and Nico Rosberg (Carting team mate) who are both very good friends.

I still don’t think this was a wise decision from a competitive standpoint, but the heart want’s what it wants and it’s not irrational at all for Hamilton to feel that McLaren’s track management mistakes were holding him back.

Schumacher was done anyway, he’s been driving like a man who just doesn’t care for the last two years.  This leaves an opening at McLaren with no obvious (or rather- too many) contenders.

Well we finally have an explanation of why Scuderia Marlboro UPC sucked so bad these past few seasons, their wind tunnel is a piece of crap.  Lotus is not going to get a chance to use their new wing, probably for the season, because there is just not enough track test time.

Hards and Softs, no Mediums.  What this means is there will be a very distinct performance/durability gap between them.  Pirelli is predicting a 3 stop race, but some teams may try for 2.

Schumacher penalized 20 positions for the collision at Marina Bay, Button and Hulkenberg lose 5 positions for a gearbox change.  Vettel escapes with a mere reprimand for blocking Alonso.  Hamilton qualified exceptionally poorly because he was behind the last lap crash of Raikkonen.

Suzuka is very fast, but doesn’t have a lot of passing opportunities.  This race will likely be won or lost on tire strategy and pit stops unless there are mechanical failures or accidents.

Interactive Track

Suzuka

Official Sites

Pretty tables below.

F1 2012: Suzuka Qualifying

The last thing I want to talk about at the moment is Schumacher and Hamilton, fortunately Baseball has been very, very good to me.

Too good in fact and it’s been difficult to concentrate on anything else.

Suzuka is very fast and one of the few circuits with a figure 8 layout.  I’ve always been disappointed that they don’t run School Bus races there because there’s nothing like a good old figure 8 School Bus races for twisted chunks of flaming metal.

There have actually been a few crashes during Practice including Schumacher and di Resta.  Vettel led the last practice but there seems to be general agreement that Hamilton’s McLaren is faster than anyone.

We shall see.

F1 2012: Marina Bay

During the boring parts today you can expect to hear lots of commentary about driver changes.  I’ve never been much of a believer in the ‘great man’ theory of history and I think most drivers with a Super License can be said to be reasonably competent while but a bare handful have any positive impact over and above the hardware they pilot and the management teams that support them.

There really is only one Alonso and he’s a perfect fit in Maranello where they can’t be bothered to produce a quick car because they’re so busy polishing their turds (Mythbusters have proven you can actually do this).

Hamilton is a good example of the other kind of driver, fearless and skilled, able to make fast hardware fast and not so fast hardware work at all, constantly thwarted and frustrated by decisions over which they have little control.

There has been a lot of talk about Hamilton changing teams that I’ve felt has been totally misguided.  Where would he go?  There are only 3 teams besides McLaren in the last 14 years that have produced a champion.

Scuderia Marlboro UPC might be interested in a Massa upgrade, but not necessarily in Hamilton.  Alonso doesn’t care much who he races with as long as they stay in the mirror which Hamilton would not.  Without Alonso, Maranello would have a tough time getting to Q3.  Why would Hamilton trade down hardware and put himself in an impossible situation?

Red Bull stands pat.  Why wouldn’t they?  Management and hardware is usually superior (not so much this year) and Vettel and Webber are good enough to win.

That leaves Lotus (Renault).  If Hamilton moves Grosjean is in his seat.

But it’s all mere speculation, Hamilton signed a 1 year extension yesterday.  Sinagapore also signed a 5 year extension of their race contract for a little more than $25 million a year.  While Bernie is being coy there is no doubt it’s a substantial discount compared to the $40 million charged Bahrain for the privilege.

And it has nothing at all to do with listing the now indefinitely postponed IPO on the Singapore exchange.  Nothing.

What about this race?

Twisty, bumpy, narrow, hard to pass… breakdowns, crashes, and tires otherwise they finish the way they start.  Fortunately for the entertainment value these are all likely to factor.  de la Rosa has already taken a gearbox penalty (to no effect since he was starting last anyway).  Vettel is complaining (with many others) about the curbing in the Turn 10 chicane launching cars and close wall encounters have been common.  Mercedes is taking a gamble with Softs (the harder of the 2 compounds this week) at the start instead of the 1 second a lap faster Super Softs.

Odds are it will be a soporific dronefest though not nearly as much as the Sunday Talking Heads.  It is the potential for excitement, change, and news that make it superior.

Pretty tables below.

F1 2012: Marina Bay Qualifying

Next June 9th to 20th might be a good time to stay away from northern New Jersey and New York City as Bernie’s traveling circus comes to fat boy bully Chris Christie’s bond degraded New Jersey.  Bad news for Spain which faces secession by Catalonia AND the loss of the Valencia race.

Singapore next year is a provisional start as track officials argue that the expense of lighting the only night race and setting up the street circuit should merit a further reduction in the participation fee.  This is not good news for Ecclestone as the Formula One IPO has been postponed indefinitely while his company CVC has sold 50% of its once 65% share privately.

In another sign that the air is leaving the Formula One bubble, Speed’s Formula One Debrief is reporting that teams are moving away from schemes attempting to reduce costs through racing regulations in favor of flat expenditure caps.  I think this would actually be good as it would penalize diversity less and allow junior teams the track development time they so desperately need to be competitive.

Of course one of the problems is the expansion plans.  The inclusion of so many Asian events is driving up the costs of logistics and transportation, the question is whether the perceived value of name recognition and client relations from association with Formula One will be sufficient to continue to fund the lavish excesses of greedy parasites like Bernie.

Mercedes has a new exhaust.  Lotus a new wing.  We’ll be running Softs and Super Softs, the track won’t be helping them much as it will be hot and bumpy though it is a slow track, just slightly faster than Monaco.

How will the artificial lighting effect them?  Probably not much but if you’ve ever been night skiing you know it has a tendency to flatten out irregularities so what seems a minor mogul can suck your knees to your chest with compression or launch you unexpectedly.  More to the point is that the customary early evening showers are likely to wash off any ‘rubbering in’ and make the pavement slippery.  There’s not a lot of room for error on a street course, Caterham has already busted a suspension on the Jersey barriers bringing out a red flag that interrupted Friday’s second Practice.

Renault is having a real problem with their alternators in every engine they ship.  They made some modifications to give it a little more grunt that have proven disastrous from a reliability standpoint and unfortunately the defective AE35 unit in failure mode is little more than a chunk of twisted metal so post mortem diagnostics have so far been ineffective.

Race time tomorrow 7:30 am.  Any surprises below.

F1 2012: Autodromo Nazionale Monza

A couple of stories emerged during Qualifying.  The first is Alonso who marched steadily backwards in the time charts due to what they are calling swaybar problems.  Monza is a bad place to screw up if you’re wearing red because it’s Maronello’s home track and the boys at Marlboro UPC are watching quite closely.  This is why Qualifying high was good news for Massa who is reportedly hanging onto his job by a thread.

The other is track condition.  There have been an unexpected incidents of mechanical problems, some minor and others (gearbox, engine) not so minor.  Speculation is the uneven new paving is stressing the components.

Grosjean was suspended for a race because he caused that 4 car pile up in Turn 1 last week with Alonso, Hamilton, Kobayashi, and Perez.  Some observers consider this harsh, me not so much.  Starts are the most dangerous time in the race and he plowed into Hamilton as if he wasn’t even there.  He’s being replaced in the Lotus by d’Ambrosio.  Maldonado jumped the start at Spa and has suffered a 10 grid penalty.  di Resta didn’t use his gearbox 5 races in a row and has suffered a 5 grid penalty.

Pirelli is offering Hards and Mediums and is predicting 1 stop racing which will minimize pit advantage.  These are not the same Hards and Mediums that started the season.  At Spa and now here Pirelli has gone with narrower tires and a different compound that doesn’t degrade quite as quickly.  This is tempting teams to push them harder which is creating a situation where they could drive the wheels right off and suffer blow outs.

Speed coverage starts at 8 am.  Repeat at 12:30 am.  Pretty tables below.

F1 2012: Autodromo Nazionale Monza Qualifying

Monza is the fastest track on the Formula One tour and until recently was the personal testing ground of the Scuderia Marlboro UPC.  Now, except for this weekend, constructors are barred from using it at all.

There are a couple of angles to this.  First, the commentators have finally noticed what I’ve been pointing out for years which is that track testing, though expensive, is the only way for new teams to develop the engineering knowledge to become competitive.

You see it’s quite one thing to take your chassis and your aero bits to a wind tunnel and create a downforce/drag model and an entirely different thing to generate a table of tire grip and degradation under various track surfaces, temperatures, fuel loads, and driving styles.

Also tracks are losing revenue from admissions and rent and maintenance is neglected and untested since the circuits are not being used.  Monza used to rent out every weekend without an event to Maronello and people would pay to wander around and watch.  They’ve just repaved a section and it’s so ripply that people are in danger of losing their compliance boards (you can only scratch a millimeter or 2 off the bottom of your car when you bang the road or a curb).  The prancing pony people would have had that fixed.

Another issue is driver preparation.  Out of a limited pool of practice hours teams understandably devote the bulk to their primaries.  If by circumstance you are forced to start your substitute they will have very little experience in anything except a simulator.  GP 2s are a very different car and type of racing and graduates of that program still require 2 or 3 seasons of training in the F1 hardware to be effective which is why you’ll see so many ‘retired’ veterans make a brief comeback no matter how bad they were in their original stint in the big show.

As is happening this weekend, Grosjean is under suspension for taking out Alonso and Hamilton in Turn One at Spa last week.  His replacement?  d’Ambrosia of no particular reputation other than that of not gratuitously wrecking cars.

Lotus is particularly hard hit this year because after much development they’ve been forced to temporarily abandon their trick passive F-Duct for the 3rd race where it might have made a difference.  Europe has been rainy and race weekend practices inundated beyond the possibility of testing.  We may or may not see its debut in Suzuka, just in time to make no difference at all this season and legislated out of existence next.

Monza is very very fast and the operative elements are downforce and drag.  All the teams will be running the smallest wings they have in stock.  The tire compounds are Hard and Medium and at that they will probably go off quicker than you think because of the stress of braking and cornering without aero help.  Likewise engines and transmissions (Alonso has already gone through a set of each in practice).

While it’s fast, there’s not a lot of passing opportunities because the engines are so narrowly specified that there’s not a lot of horsepower difference on the straights.  Position changes under braking which means it will be a game of chicken in the corners with a lot depending on mechanical (tire) grip.  There will be 2 DRS Zones but the cars are already so light I don’t expect them to make much difference.

On form McLarens and Ferraris look slightly better because of beefier engines and because they have problems with getting enough downforce, not being fast in a straight line.  Pole will be particularly important though probably not decisive because the interval between the leaders will be low.  It will be difficult to get enough of a lead to pit without losing position and hard to regain that once lost unless in an advantageous tactical position (cleary better tires, opponent behind on pits, etc.).

Maldonado did jump start last week, unsure if there was any penalty since he eventually retired anyway.

Speed will repeat Practice and Qualifying starting at 2 am tomorrow with the GP 2 race starting at 6 am and the Italian Grand Prix at 8.

F1 2012: Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps

Oh how the mighty have fallen, which would be just about everyone after Jenson Button on pole.  Webber and Rosberg (both on Renault) had gearbox problems that dropped them 5 positions and Maldonado had a mix up with Hulkenberg that put him back 3.

Lewis Hamilton put on the wrong wing yesterday and now he’s stuck with it, Vettel and Massa were just slooow.

Tires today are Hards and Mediums.  Button has a set of unused Mediums in the bag over the rest of the field.  The weather is expected to be dry and perfect.  At 4.35 miles it is the longest circuit in Formula One and is considered twisty, hilly, and fast.

Speed coverage starts at 8 am.  Repeat at 12:30 am.  Pretty tables below.

F1 2012: Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps Qualifying

Hard to believe it’s already been 5 weeks since Hungaroring but for the first 2 we had the XXX Olympiad to amuse us.  They take their vacations seriously which is why there was a lot of development work just before mid-season most of which they’ve still been unable to test except during racing because of the execrable weather.

Practice at Spa was just like that with very little track time at all and that using the Wets and Inters.  Lotus has a new passive F-Duct (spoils the airflow over the rear wing reducing drag and downforce) they’ve never gone fast enough to use.

So qualifying as always is a crapshoot, Spa itself is considered one of the fastest tracks on the circuit when it’s not raining which it usually is.  Rapid elevation changes can starve the engines of oil and cause failures.  Massa’s engine blew up in P1, but it was race used and there was no penalty.

While it’s fair enough to call this mid-season, the majority of races have already been run and there is a certain urgency for Teams that feel they are in contention to improve their positions or stave off rivals.  To me the story line at the top is whether Alonso can continue to make that piece of junk he’s driving look good and Red Bull will continue its malaise.  McLaren as always could be great if their race management wasn’t so damn stupid and Lotus is putting a ton of work into breaking the top 3.  Mercedes waves it’s hands in the air and just dosn’t care, Force India keeps thinking they can steal one.  The announcers will continue to sentimentally root Williams but they are years away.

Counting this there are 9 races left in 13 weeks before the end of the season on November 25th.  Spa and Monza next week are the last ones in Europe.

The full slate of Speed support broadcasts, Debrief, Practice, and Qualifying will be repeated Sunday morning from 12:30 to 4:30 with the GP 2 race starting at 6 am and the Belgian Gran Prix at 8.

F1 2012: Hungaroring

So after all the teams burned up their good rubber on yesterday’s Qualifying today catches everybody on the wrong foot with car setups and tire management.

It will be dry.

This is good news for the pole sitters actually since their setups have already proven successful and the only hope for the back markers is that their fewer laps will be able to keep them on track enough longer to offset their demonstrated speed disadvantage.  We’ll be seeing the same Mediums (Prime) and Softs (Option) that we’ve seen most of the season.

The commentators are convinced that Red Bull has been hamstrung by the decision outlawing their engine torque mapping system, but I look at the results of Qualifying and I’m not persuaded yet.  Sure Webber is out in Q2, but Vettel puts the same car in 3rd.  Rosberg and Schumacher are mild disappointments for Mercedes fans, but the team has had good and bad weeks all season.

Why the big deal about Qualifying?  The Hungaroring has a reputation for driving like Monaco.  What people mean by this is that despite being a lot faster on lap times, it’s a horrible place to pass and cars tend to end up in the same grid they started unless they blow up or park in a wall.

Summarizing the season at the August break my impressions are that Alonso has an unassailable lead in the drivers’ standings because his rivals are inconsistent in their results in addition to his being an improved driver in an improved car (for proof look at Massa).

Red Bull would be in trouble except for the reliability issue.  Until their opponents can consistently put 2 drivers in the points no one can catch them.  McLaren engineering is quite good, but their race management sucks.  Ferrari deserves praise for producing a better car, or at least one Alonso is comfortable in.

The main points if interest will be whether any teams from mid-pack will be able to really effect a race or not and which ones will they be.  Renault and Mercedes are candidates, but there won’t be any improvements.

They’re on vacation damnit.

Pretty tables below.

Formula One 2012: Hungaroring Qualifying

The big news is that Red Bull’s engine torque mapping has been ruled illegal in response to complaints by McLaren that it’s going to set off an expensive race to duplicate.  Unknown how much this will effect them.  Lotus and McLaren reworking their aero packages, McLaren with apparent success.

Vettel had to give up his place after putting all 4 wheels off passing Button at Hockenheim.

I’m not sure what the compounds are and it probably doesn’t matter yet.  It was damp both Practices and mostly all the running was on Inters (slicks had a tendency to slide).  Race day tomorrow they predict downpours that make Wets questionable, worst weather in 3 weekends (and that’s saying something).  Bring your paper boats to float in the gutters while you sit out the red flags damp.

Or not.  Today is supposed to be dry and I suppose one of the reasons the McLaren aero is working better is that they’ve been able to get the dry laps to test it.  Pirelli is still frustrated by it’s inability to test the new extreme hards they intend to introduce next season.

The Hungaroring is flat and twisty and reminds drivers of Monaco because it’s difficult to overtake, so the question of Qualifying vs. race setup could factor in.  It’s a great favorite of the Finns and they come in droves.  Expect them to be rooting for Raikkonen (actually picked as a potential winner by some of the commentators) and Kovalainen.

My last year’s coverage is here and here.  2010 is here and here.

Load more