New Hampshire Results and Exit Poll

Results

92% of Precincts Reporting.

Republicans

Candidate Raw Vote % Delegates
Donald Trump 94,893 35.2 10
John Kasich 42,733 15.8 3
Ted Cruz 31,436 11.7 2
Jeb Bush 29,866 11.1 2
Marco Rubio 28,382 10.5
Chris Christie 20,169 7.5
Carly Fiorina 11,260 4.2
Ben Carson 6,149 2.3
Jim Gilmore 129 0.0
Other 4,793 1.8

Democrats

Candidate Raw Vote % Delegates
Bernie Sanders 142,146 60.0 13
Hillary Clinton 90,734 38.3 9
Other 3,998 1.7

A couple items of interest- Bernie Sanders got way more votes than Trump and Hillary Clinton got almost as many. Before the Primary projections of Bernie’s margin were centered around 13 to 14 points (CNN, Real Clear Politics) and even I was somewhat conservative with my estimate of 10 to 15. His final margin is 21.7 points.

Exit Poll

Democratic only of course, who cares about Republicans? Besides these tables are hard work and the Republican one is twice as big.

Before you draw any particular conclusion from an individual result, you must first consider the percentage of all responses that result represents- 90% of a 10% universe is not very significant. Next you should consider the magnitude of Sanders’ overall victory, results that are higher or lower than the average will help identify strengths and weaknesses. Still you have to remember that even in areas lower than average, outperforming expectations contributed to the final margin.

For instance- Sanders heavily defeated Clinton among Men, but they represented only 45% of the electorate. He did not exceed his average result among Women, who represent 55% of voters, but he still got an outright victory and beat expectations.

That’s a simple case. You have to treat the more complex ones the same way.

From The New York Times.

Q/Group % All Voters Bernie Hillary
Sex
Male 45% 66 32
Female 55% 55 44
Age
18-29 19% 83 16
30-44 22% 66 32
45-64 42% 53 45
65 and over 17% 44 55
Urban, suburban, rural
City over 50,000 12% 57 40
Suburbs 48% 58 40
Small city and rural 40% 63 36
Who do you think is honest and trustworthy?
Only Clinton 6%
Only Sanders 50% 95 3
Both of them 39% 26 73
Neither of them 3%
Who shares your values?
Only Clinton 11%
Only Sanders 33% 97 2
Both of them 51% 48 52
Neither of them 4%
Which was more important in your vote for president today?
Positions on the issues 72% 66 32
Leadership or personal qualities 25% 44 54
College degree
College graduate 60% 56 43
No college degree 40% 67 31
Income
Under $30,000 14% 71 25
$30,000 – $49,999 17% 60 38
$50,000 – $99,999 33% 64 35
$100,000 – $199,999 28% 55 44
$200,000 or more 8% 46 53
Political philosophy
Very liberal 26% 66 33
Somewhat liberal 42% 57 42
Moderate 27% 58 39
Conservative 4%
Replacing current health care system with single taxpayer-funded plan for all Americans
Support 63% 70 29
Oppose 32% 39 58
How worried are you about a major terrorist attack in the U.S.?
Very/somewhat 69% 56 43
Not too/not at all 31% 71 29
How worried are you about the direction of the nation’s economy?
Very/somewhat 80% 65 34
Not too/not at all 20% 43 57
Registered as independent/undeclared
Yes 41% 72 27
Financial situation
Getting ahead financially 16% 53 47
Holding steady financially 67% 59 39
Falling behind financially 17% 69 28
What do you expect for life of the next generation of Americans?
Better than life today 25% 61 37
Worse than life today 38% 70 29
About the same 35% 48 50
Issue that matters most
Health care 23% 54 45
Economy/jobs 33% 59 38
Terrorism 10% 49 47
Income inequality 32% 70 29
Income tax rates
Increase for all 10%
Increase only on income over $250,000 78% 59 40
Not increase for anyone 11%
Gun household
Yes 30% 69 28
No 70% 57 43
Decided whom to support
Just today 14% 44 48
In the last few days 12%
Sometime last week 6%
In the last month 16% 70 29
Before that 52% 61 38
Candidate quality that matters most
Can win in November 12% 19 79
Cares about people like me 26% 82 17
Honest and trustworthy 34% 91 5
Has the right experience 26% 15 85

The New Hampshire exit poll was based on questionnaires completed by primary voters on Tuesday as they left election locations throughout the state.

The poll was conducted by Edison Research of Somerville, N.J. for the National Election Pool which consists of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News.

The results are based on 2,215 Democratic primary voters at 45 randomly selected polling places, interviewed as they were exiting each site.

In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, the results from such polls should differ by no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from what would have been obtained by seeking to interview all voters who participated in each party’s primary in New Hampshire. Results based on smaller sub-groups, such as specific demographic groups or backers of a particular candidate, have a larger potential sampling error. Groups that are too small to be sampled accurately are represented with a dash.

In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of voter opinion on election day, such as reluctance of some voters to take time to complete the questionnaire, may introduce other sources of error into the poll.

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