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May 24 2011

NY-26: Election Day: Up Dated: Congratulations Congresswoman-elect Hochul

(Polls are now closed.  You can use this thread to talk about the results. – promoted by ek hornbeck)

Voting has started in Western New York House District 26 to replace Craig’s list Republican Christopher Lee. The strongly Republican district is expected to flip to Democratic blue because of the Republican melt down over Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget bill which wold end Medicare and decimate Medicaid. So far the Democratic candidate, Kathy Hochul, has a comfortable lead in the polls over Republican choice Jane Corwin and the 78 year old perennial candidate, Jack Davis, who is running on the Tea Party line. All eyes are on this race since it is likely to be the template for coming elections in the national debate over the Ryan budget despite House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s protests that this is not a referendum on that bill.

Democrats should not get too comfortable and I’m sure they’re not, this can always go the other way. Politico will be watching five factors in this race tonight:

The Davis effect

There’s probably no more critical factor in the race than Jack Davis, the Democrat-turned-tea-party-candidate who’s spent nearly $3 million of his own funds casting himself as an independent-minded outsider who will save the Buffalo area’s blue-collar workers from losing their jobs to China.

Erie County Democrats

Simply put, Hochul needs to rack up a big margin in her home base of Erie County, the district’s population center and the portion of the district in which Democrats have performed most strongly in recent congressional races.

Rural Republicans

Corwin is looking to make up for her expected Erie County deficit with a large turnout in the district’s more GOP-friendly rural counties, such as Wyoming and Livingston, which in previous years provided sizable margins for former GOP Reps. Chris Lee and Tom Reynolds.

The senior set

There’s little question that Democrats have succeeded in focusing the race on the future of Medicare – an issue that’s critical in the minds of senior voters who heavily populate the district and are among those most likely to vote in a special election.

The expectations game

Just as important as any tactical factors will be who finishes ahead in what has emerged as a vigorous spin war. With the race emerging as a preview of the 2012 campaign and the first political litmus test for the Republican budget push, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

The polls close at 9 PM. I will be phone banking for Kathy Hochul for most of the day. I’ll up date later as the results come in. Best of luck to Kathy.

Special Election Streaming Video

Up Date 10:45 PM EDT:

Hochul: “We are all future seniors”

Up Date 10:26:

Corwin has conceded to election to Kathy Hochul.

Up Date 10:10 PM EDT: While AP has called the race for Hochul with a 4000+ vote lead, other are saying “not yet”. Two counties Eerie and Orleans results are lagging and there are 6000 absentee ballots that will need to be counted.

From David Weigel:

9:57: Genesse and Orleans counties are dragging, but look at where the outstanding precincts are. Of the 212 precincts out, 46 are in Erie, where Hochul is winning easy and racking up her margin. Thirty-eight are in Niagra: Also Hochul turf. Only 3 are in Monroe, where Corwin needed to cancel out the Hochul margin from Erie but the candidates are tied. The remaining precincts, 115 of them, are from the GLOW counties. Corwin needs to find a 4,000-vote margin with this map. It’s not happening.

Up Date 10:00 PM EDT: From AP Results:

With 66% precincts reporting: Hochul 48% – Corwin 43%

Up Date 9:50 PM EDT: From Bloomberg via Twitter:

Buffalo NBC reporting Hochul is winning Orleans Co 54%-38% with 84% in; county went for McCain 57-41% http://bit.ly/jEM75Y

Up Date 9:40 PM EDT:

From AP results: Hochul 48% – Corwin 42% with 45% of precincts reporting.

Up Date: 9:25 PM EDT: With just 3% of the precicts reporting Hochul leads by 4%.

From David Weigel At Slate:

9:21: Votes from Erie are trickling in, and Hochul is racking up an 18-point margin. Keep in mind, though, that Jack Davis won this county by 10 points in 2006.

Up Date: 7 PM EDT: From David Dayen  at FDL, the “fun” has already begun before the polls have closed and the first ballot counted which smacks of desperation by Republican Jane Corwin. Let’s hope that the margin is so big that she won’t be able to utilize this delaying tactic

Corwin granted court order barring certification of winner

   Jane L. Corwin this afternoon obtained a court order from State Supreme Court Justice Russell P. Buscaglia barring a certification of a winner in the special 26th Congressional District race pending a show-cause hearing before him later this week […]

   Chris Grant, a spokesman for the Corwin campaign, said the court action “is very typical” in such close elections.

   “We recognize the closeness of the race and we want to make sure that every legal vote is counted fairly and accurately,” Grant said.

   Paul B. Wojtaszek, Buscaglia’s law clerk, said such prospective court actions are permissible under the state’s Election Law when a close vote is borne out by pre-voting polling.

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And on a comedic note from David:

(Ian) Murphy is the Green Party candidate for this Congressional seat, but in a stunt, he posed as a campaign worker for Corwin and actually made phone calls on her behalf yesterday. The response shouldn’t be encouraging to the Republican candidate:

   “Hi, sir, my name’s Steve and I’m a volunteer for the Jane Corwin campaign-”

   “Jesus!” a guy screams at me. “You know, I was thinking about voting for Corwin, but this is too much! You people have called me a dozen times in the last two days! I am sick of it!”

   “But Jane Corwin wants to rule over you with an iron fist,” I calmly relay. “Don’t you crave strong leadership?”

   “What?!” he balks. “An ‘iron fist’?”

   “Yes,” I assure him. “These phone calls are just the beginning. When Jane’s in Congress she will do everything in her power to crush you mentally and physically.”

   “Don’t call me again!” he says and slams down the receiver.

I needed a laugh. Everyone that I have called was friendly & cheerful with concerns about a lot of issues, others just hung up.

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