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Feb 29 2020

Handicapping South Carolina

There can be only one winner today and his name is Bernie Sanders.

But wait, isn’t he 20 points behind?

Sure, in one survey, the Monmouth.

Unfortunately for the Bernie hating Villagers who have doubled down on it because they want nothing more than a Biden Presidency to ensure their cushy phony baloney jobs are safe and the nepotistic Class system that led to their undeserved success and the Corrupt Corporatist Monopoly Neo Liberalism they worship with cult-like faith persists unmolested.

Sorry folks, it’s what we in the research biz call an outlier. Miles away from other contemporaneous studies and the historical trend line. The most likely result is a tepid Biden win and a stronger than expected Sanders second with the only other player of note being Tom Steyer who has certainly spent enough money on it.

What kills is the Expectation Game. A week ago any Biden victory was a victory and he desperately needs one otherwise his campaign is done.

Now he needs a 20 Point victory or he’s a failure. Bernie needs to show up.

The other part of the damage is already done. Biden has been fixated of South Carolina where it’s win or golf for him. Sanders is on a Super Tuesday Road Trip having banked enough. Even finishing 3rd to Steyer (not happening, dream on) is going to leave him well positioned to emerge with a 2 – 300 Delegate lead Wednesday morning and that ladies and gents is a front runner.

Any kind of win, even a squeaker, will keep Biden in the race until Super Tuesday next week but the more he loses the less the “electability” card comes into play and it seems to be the only one he has. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are not contesting which means they’re planning on hanging out until Super Tuesday so don’t expect them to drop.

Boomberg and Steyer aren’t going anywhere either and will probably bitter end. Oddly enough the only one left with a path to the Nomination is Warren. Biden is not getting any better and always sucked. Buttigieg and Klobuchar might manage a few finishes above the 15% viability standard neither of them will win because they are boring and have no policy except more of the same failed one. Warren is only candidate who can possibly siphon away some of Bernie’s support and maintain their Democratic Party loyalty should he happen to lose.

Which I do not predict. Super Tuesday, where only Bloomberg and Sanders have the resources to play across the board, Bernie will cruise to an insurmountable lead under the proportional representation rules. Buttigieg and Klobuchar will drop (Klobuchar and Warren could both easily lose their home State Primaries). Warren I hope hangs on because I like her (not a Bernie Bro though he bothers me less than some, he’s terribly conservative) and because, as I say, she is the last thin reed of hope for the Democratic Establishment. Not So Joltin’ Joe? He’ll hang on, probably to the end, because he and his supporters are too Rocky Balboa TBI to realize how badly they’ve been beaten.

Come back you coward. I’ll gum you to death.

So woe to you contemplating a Sanders/Trump race with trepidation and dread. First of all Bernie could have lost just as badly as Hillary in ’16, he could hardly have lost worse. Also, consider the opposition, do you think Katrina Covid 19 is going to do any favors to the side that thinks Prayer, Communion, and Magical Thinking is as effective as real medicine?

Nope. By the end Sanders will seem a paradigm of sanity and reason in comparison.

So suck it up and get ready to feel the Bern or buckle in for the Facist Funhouse Ride because that’s what will happen. I’m pre-positioning myself near a convenient border November 3rd with a full tank of gas and my Passport.

You know, in case.