2012 Le Tour – Stage 11

… looking to hold onto their position doesn’t attack early … Cadel and BMC made a gamble that they could shake Sky up by attacking on the slopes of the Col de Croix de la Fer.

The strategy was excellent, if risky: send Tejay up the road, and then Cadel attacks to rejoin Tejay. Tejay paces Cadel as he recovers, and then they work to hold onto their attack. If they succeed in holding their advantage, then Cadel takes over on the downhill, taking more risks than the peleton can do, picking up time, and then works to hold that advantage on the short Cat2 climb before picking up more time on the descent.

Then, if things work out, other rivals attack to make back time, Sky burns up too much effort trying to recapture the time lost on the descents, Wiggins is isolated on the last climb and Cadel puts serious time into him.

Now, Cadel Evans is not first and foremost a climber, he is an all around rider with good time trialing abilities and an ability to hang on in a climb, but he is not a climber who is going to be able to attack on a 14% slope. So the decision to attack on the slope of the Col de Croix de la Fer meant he had to attack where the slope allowed him to attack. That was over 4km back from the summit. He was able to bridge to Tejay, but over the next 2km, Sky was able to bridge the gap, with the Sky domestique from Australia turning himself “inside out” (a Paul Sherwinism) to claw back the time in a sustained paced climb.

Then on the Cat1 at the end, we saw the risk that Evans was taking: he had spent too much effort on the attack, and did not have the legs to hang onto the Yellow Jersey group.

The alternative approach, to hang onto the Yellow Jersey group and attack on the final climb, would have been safer. However, it did not offer the same upside potential. So he went for the riskier, higher jackpot gamble … and lost.

In the end it was not Evans who was the beneficiary of Evan’s attack, it was Nibali. However, even as an Evans fan I can’t complain, because Nibali also rode an aggressive, attacking race today.

The next chance for Evans to make up serious time is likely Wednesday next week: the Pyrenees is the kind of terrain that Wiggin’s steady pace climbing is least well suited to.

Tomorrow is more likely to be opportunistic, to look for a chance to attack and take it if it presents itself. However, after Tejay’s performance today, he does have an extra card to play ~ he can release Tejay to try to ride for the stage win, which would bring Tejay into closer contention and with luck allow Tejay to attack early enough on a stage next week to force Sky to chase, weakening Sky and allowing Evans to attack later in the same stage.